ANALYSIS:FF stretch lead over FG, who have fallen behind main Coalition partner by a further three points
THE LATEST Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll, conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, confirms Fianna Fáil as the most popular political party in Ireland, registering 42 per cent support for the second month in a row and widening the gap on Fine Gael who have fallen back to 23 per cent (a drop of three points). Not since before the 2002 general election has Fianna Fáil enjoyed such a commanding lead.
Satisfaction with the Government's performance is at 46 per cent, down two points on the May poll.
Viewed against the backdrop of a slowing economy, growing unemployment, deteriorating public finances and rock-bottom public confidence, it is somewhat surprising that support for Fianna Fáil has not weakened and that satisfaction with the Government's performance has only fallen marginally.
It is possible that the voting statistics are holding up for Fianna Fáil and the Government because our changing economic circumstances have not registered fully with voters, who are preoccupied with the Lisbon Treaty. If this is the case, and voters turn their attention to the economy post-Lisbon, future polls may see a return to the tendency for voters to use economic performance as a barometer of government performance.
The theory that disgruntled voters would use the treaty to send a message to Government is partly undermined by today's poll findings.
For instance, support for the Government has only declined marginally while the No vote has jumped, suggesting that these two factors are largely unrelated. And more importantly, the No vote has surged across the board and among the support base of almost every party. It is true that the supporters of all the main parties, except Fianna Fáil and the Green Party, intend to vote against the treaty, but this does not mean that disgruntled voters are trying to send a message to the Government, only that they are less likely to follow their lead.
Three weeks ago we measured Brian Cowen's performance as Taoiseach for the first time.
Since then, many more voters have had the opportunity to make their assessment. During this time, satisfaction with Cowen has fallen five points to 47 per cent, while dissatisfaction has increased 11 points to 22 per cent, suggesting that voters who have only recently formed an opinion on his performance have not formed a favourable one.
Cowen's satisfaction ratings are not as disappointing as they might appear. Firstly, we need to consider that voters who had previously not expressed an opinion are mostly Fine Gael, Labour and Sinn Féin voters and as such are naturally disinclined towards awarding the Fianna Fáil leader a positive rating. And secondly, Cowen continues to enjoy a higher satisfaction rating than any other party leader, albeit a rating driven by his position as leader of the party with the greatest number of supporters.
Fianna Fáil's strong showing in the poll may be due in part to the relatively poor showing by the main Opposition party. Fine Gael have retreated to their lowest poll rating in more than three years. The party's loss must be, to a degree, Fianna Fáil's gain.
Support for Fine Gael may have moved in the wrong direction in recent polls, but it is too early to conclude that the party has lost momentum, especially in view of the obvious challenges facing the Government in the months ahead.
Mirroring his party performance, Enda Kenny's poll numbers have also flagged, recording a personal satisfaction rating of 35 per cent, a decline of four points and a four-year low for the Fine Gael leader.
It should be noted that Kenny is not alone in seeing his personal satisfaction rating fall. All party leaders have suffered in this regard, perhaps due to the relatively higher profile of other senior party members on the Lisbon Treaty campaign trail.
With 15 per cent support in three out of the last four polls, Labour will be pleased to have consolidated gains achieved since the 2007 general election and, at the same time, disappointed not to have built on this foundation.
Interestingly, Labour's recent gains have been concentrated within older age groups, with 50 per cent of Labour voters aged 50 years or older.
Like other party leaders, Eamon Gilmore has seen his satisfaction rating slip. Satisfaction with the Labour leader is now five points lower at 40 per cent. Most of this drop has shifted into the no opinion category, although his dissatisfaction rating is marginally higher also.
The recent swing towards a No vote in the treaty campaign is reflected in the Sinn Féin vote, which is back to 8 per cent having recovered the two points lost in the May poll. Among No voters to the treaty, support for Sinn Féin is very strong. Indeed, Sinn Féin voters are almost universally (96 per cent) against the treaty.
As suggested at the time, the two-point drop in support for the Greens in our May poll was perhaps overplayed and they have recovered some ground, moving from 4 per cent to 5 per cent in this poll.
With so much of our media focused on the treaty referendum, there are few opportunities for the Green agenda to take centre stage. Once June 12th has passed, and the emissions, energy and environmental debates are reignited, the Greens may begin to feature more prominently.
Also struggling to attract voters' attention are Ciarán Cannon and the PDs. At 1 per cent, support for the PDs is unchanged. Moreover, the new PD leader has yet to break through, with only a 15 per cent satisfaction rating and 71 per cent of voters yet to express an opinion on his performance.
Once we move beyond Lisbon, a clearer view of the political landscape will emerge, where difficulties in key policy areas will challenge the Government and shape the Opposition.
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Damian Loscher is managing director of TNS mrbi