ANALYSIS:Late call for "balanced" government and appeal to core voters helped turn the tide for party, writes PAUL CULLEN
RELIEF rather than elation has been the defining note of Labour’s reaction to its best ever election result.
After a campaign that veered off course on several occasions, the party got its messages sorted in the final days before polling and achieved the goal of becoming the second-largest party in the State.
It’s been here before, though. Despite more than doubling its vote and greatly increasing its seats, Labour finds itself back almost exactly where it was in 1992.
On that occasion, it reaped 33 seats during the so-called Spring tide – and lost almost half of them in the following election after spells in coalition with Fianna Fáil and later Fine Gael and Democratic Left.
This time around, it is likely to win 35 seats, giving a much-needed and long overdue injection of fresh talent into the parliamentary party. Yet it finds itself, once again, the bridesmaid rather than the bride.
More alarmingly for the party, its potential partner is an electorally and ideologically reinvigorated Fine Gael, rather than the eminently more pliable Fianna Fáil of the early 1990s.
In assessing Labour’s election result, it is extremely difficult to determine whether the glass is half empty or half full.
Its party’s share of the vote at 19.4 per cent lies about halfway between the highs of over 30 per cent reached in the opinion polls last autumn and the 10 per cent it scored in the last election.
The problem for the party was that its election plans were hatched at the point when it was peaking at 33 per cent in the polls five months ago and failed to adjust to changed circumstances since then – Labour’s fall in the polls, a resurgent Fine Gael and Sinn Féin, and the replacement of Brian Cowen as Fianna Fáil leader by Micheál Martin.
During the three-week campaign, Labour softened from 24 per cent in early February to 19 per cent later in the month and its election result lies at that lower end.
The party was outspent, outthought and outmanoeuvred by Fine Gael throughout the campaign, and the “Gilmore for Taoiseach” posters became curiosities rather than signifiers of real change.
Gilmore performed steadily in the television debates, but was burdened by high expectations because of his success in besting Cowen over recent years in the Dáil. He appeared strident and stiff against Martin’s adept debating style in the first joust. In later debates, he moderated his tone but made fewer inroads against the other leaders. By the end of the campaign, he had fallen behind Enda Kenny and Martin as the voters’ choice for taoiseach and his ratings started to slip.
Gilmore’s declaration that it was “Labour’s way or Frankfurt’s way” on the EU-IMF deal was also criticised as being too strident.
Meanwhile, health and social issues, where the party could have made an impact, never really featured.
Fine Gael, sensing an opportunity, started calling Labour a high-tax party, but when Labour tried to fight back, it ended up being blamed for the squabble. Voters, desperate for stability in any new government, harangued Labour canvassers over the tit-for-tat but the party’s strategists stuck to their guns.
The party ran a series of newspaper attack advertisements, which claimed that Fine Gael would increase taxes and cut benefits.
Labour also suffered marginal damage after it was targeted by anti-abortion campaigners, according to its canvassers.
With Fine Gael creeping ever higher in the polls, Labour only got its tactics right in the final days. Appeals to core constituencies such as public sector workers and the less well-off struck a chord as did Gilmore’s call for “balanced” (eg, not single-party) government.
The rot was stopped, Labour’s support finally firmed up and the party became more transfer-friendly.
The result saw Labour reach beyond its strongholds in the east to Clare and Carlow-Kilkenny. In six constituencies, two of its candidates were returned, though Gilmore failed to bring in his running mate, Ivana Bacik, in Dún Laoghaire. The party still has only one TD in Connacht-Ulster, but the foundations have been laid for future growth.
The challenge now will be to hang on to these gains by learning from the lessons of the early 1990s. Herein lies the conundrum; historically, Labour has always suffered from involvement in coalition, but in the current economic climate, it would equally be punished for not taking up the chance of a share of government with Fine Gael.
POLICY DIFFERENCES: FG AND LABOUR
THE ECONOMY
Fine Gaelaccepts the targets in the deal, including the 3 per cent of GDP deficit target by 2014
Labourproposes pushing out the 3 per cent target to 2016
CUTS
FGaccepts need for €9 billion in savings between now and 2014
Labourproposes limiting the adjustment to €7 billion
SPENDING V TAX
FG73 per cent of savings to come from lower spending and 27 per cent from higher taxation
Labour50 per cent of savings from lower spending and 50 per cent from taxation
POLITICAL REFORM
FGproposes reducing number of TDs by 20
Labourproposes maintaining same number of TDs
INCOME TAX
FGno increase in income tax
Labourno increase in income tax for earners under €100,000 a year
HEALTH
FGabolish the HSE
Labourretain HSE, but reduce numbers by 7,000
PUBLIC SECTOR
FGreduce public sector numbers by 30,000
Labourreduce public sector numbers by 18,000
THIRD-LEVEL FUNDING
FGstudents to pay back one-third of course costs after graduating
Labouropposed to third-level fees
CHILD BENEFIT
FG€250 million in savings on child benefit
Labouropposes cuts in child benefit
IRISH LANGUAGE
FGremove compulsory Irish for Leaving Cert following consultation
Labourretain compulsory Irish