Fine Gael predicted to gain extra seat

Constituency profile: Sligo-North Leitrim (3 seats - redrawn): The early tally figures from the new Sligo-North Leitrim constituency…

Constituency profile: Sligo-North Leitrim (3 seats - redrawn):The early tally figures from the new Sligo-North Leitrim constituency will be carefully scrutinised as a barometer of national trends.

It is one of the crucial marginals that could help to determine the outcome of the election and influence the formation of the next government.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will each take a seat and there is likely to be an intense battle between the two parties for the third seat.

Fianna Fáil TD Dr Jimmy Devins, based in Sligo town, and Ballymote-based Fine Gael TD John Perry, are expected to take the first two seats.

READ MORE

Fianna Fáil's Senator Eamon Scanlon, Fine Gael's Michael Comiskey and Imelda Henry, with Sinn Féin's Sean McManus, not to be ruled out, could then come into contention for the third seat.

Mr McManus was knocking on the door for a seat in the old Sligo-Leitrim constituency but never made it. He polled 5,100 first preferences, increasing the party's vote by three points.

But it was not enough, and he was eliminated on the third count. His transfers elected Independent Marian Harkin who took the first seat on the fourth count.

On a good electoral day for Sinn Féin, Mr McManus could launch a formidable challenge for a seat. However, he suffered a heart attack at the start of the campaign and it remains to be seen how this health setback will influence his chances.

Ms Harkin, meanwhile, is not running this time, having opted to remain as an MEP, giving rise to intense local speculation as to where her general election vote will go.

Last time, she polled an impressive 8,610 first preferences. Locally it is felt that they will "go all over the place", but Ms Henry, the Sligo town-based Fine Gael candidate will be hoping for some of the so-called "women's vote" as the only female candidate.

A member of Sligo County Council since 2004, she is carrying out a high-powered campaign.

But to win the second Fine Gael seat she will have to stay ahead of running mate, Mr Comiskey, who is the only candidate from the main parties based in Leitrim. Mr Comiskey should secure a good vote in his native county given the local anger which exists over the fact that Leitrim was divided in two when the constituencies were revised.

Fianna Fáil's Ballymote-based Mr Scanlon should also be a strong contender for the third seat, having polled well the last time and consolidated his base in the five years he has spent in the Seanad. Having secured 6,345 first preferences in 2002, he is a force to be reckoned with.

Sligo-based Declan Bree won a seat for Labour in the "Springtide" of 1992. The candidate this time is the chairman of Sligo County Council, Jim McGarry, who will be expected to do better than Mr Bree's relatively poor 2,530 first preference vote in 2002. If he improves the Labour vote, the destination of his transfers could prove to be influential. However, the battle overall is likely to be between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael for the crucial third seat.

Health issues are a huge factor, with demands for the extension of radiotherapy and Breasted facilities to Sligo. There is also a campaign to have the Western Rail Corridor extended to Collooney. Traffic congestion and the lack of parking in Sligo town are also local general election factors. Water charges are an issue in rural areas.

OUTGOING TDs

Jimmy Devins (FF)

John Perry (FG)

Marian Harkin (Independent)

CANDIDATES

FIANNA FÁILJimmy Devins, Eamon Scanlon

FINE GAELJohn Perry, Imelda Henry, Michael Comiskey

LABOURJim McGarry

GREENBrian Scanlon

SINN FÉINSeán McManus

OTHERSAndrew McSharry

LOCAL ISSUES

Health issues are a huge factor, with demands for the extension of radiotherapy and Breasted facilities to Sligo. There is also a campaign to have the Western Rail Corridor extended to Collooney. Traffic congestion and the lack of parking in Sligo town are also local general election factors. Water charges are an issue in rural areas.

VERDICT

FG - 2 FF - 1 Fine Gael gain

Michael O'Regan

Michael O'Regan

Michael O’Regan is a former parliamentary correspondent of The Irish Times