EU fisheries ministers meet for the annual quota battle in Brussels today and tomorrow amid pessimistic scientific opinion on the state of certain stocks.
However, politicians are likely to ignore this scientific advice in the pre-Christmas carve-up. For the first time in several years, this December the fisheries council is dealing only with total allowable catches (TACs) and quotas for 1998, and negotiations are expected to be "straightforward, tough and blood-on-the-carpet stuff", according to one member of the Irish negotiating team.
The final deal, which is expected to be hammered out in the early hours of tomorrow morning, may be made more palatable by quota swaps afterwards.
The Irish fleet faces severe cuts in Celtic Sea herring and several whitefish species, but the proposed mackerel share is better than anticipated. Some species may be subject to quota for the first time, including the lucrative horse mackerel or scad fishery.
Following successful EU-Norwegian negotiations earlier this month on the shared mackerel stock, Ireland stands to gain an extra 10,000 tonnes on last year's 52,700-tonne allocation. Norway's share of the blue whiting stocks in western waters has been cut by 10,000 tonnes for 1998; Ireland has consistently maintained that, as a non-EU member, Norway should not benefit unduly from EU fish stocks in western waters.
The mackerel increase is from a very low base, and no one should "get carried away" with it, the Irish Fish Producers' Organisation (IFPO) has warned in its pre-council briefing. The IFPO believes the quota council is a "charade", designed to meet political demands. Setting quotas at unrealistic levels for this purpose has "criminalised citizens" who just want to earn a living, it says.
A 20 per cent cut in Celtic Sea herring, and a 40 per cent cut in saithe are among the measures proposed, while megrim may also be slashed. Severe cuts are also anticipated in cod and whiting. However, the IFPO believes that some of the cuts will not prove to be quite so drastic. The Hague Preference, whereby Ireland is guaranteed a minimum quota when certain TACs fall below set thresholds, will kick in in relation to cod and whiting, it says.
A new task force to address the crisis in herring is to hold its first meeting next Monday, following the EU fisheries council. The task force will include representatives nominated by the fishing industry in both catching and processing, Bord Iascaigh Mhara, IBEC's marine council and the Department of the Marine and Natural Resources. The Marine Institute will also provide scientific advice.
Irish herring export markets have virtually collapsed in Japan and Germany, and last weekend Castletownbere fishermen warned that 1,500 jobs were threatened.
