Fianna Fáil's National Executive, which meets tonight to decide on Mayo TD Ms Beverley Flynn's expulsion from the party, should vote by secret ballot, the embattled TD has declared.
The demand for a secret vote, rather than a roll call, is being taken as clear evidence that Ms Flynn, who lost the parliamentary party whip on Tuesday, will lose heavily tonight.
The 97-strong National Executive will meet in Leinster House at 6.30 p.m. to discuss a motion calling for her expulsion "for conduct unbecoming" following her Supreme Court libel appeal defeat.
However, the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and other senior party officers are expected to strongly oppose Ms Flynn's demand for a secret ballot, and, instead, push for an open roll call.
Fianna Fáil's own rulebook, the Córú, does not specify the type of ballot to be used, though Mr Charles J. Haughey demanded a roll call in 1985 when he expelled Mr Desmond O'Malley.
Under the party's rules, a motion of this nature must be supported by "two-thirds of those present and voting", which means that it can be blocked by a one-third minority vote.
Expressing confidence that she can secure this kind of support, Ms Flynn told The Irish Times: "We should have moved on from 1985. If they are confident of winning they have nothing to fear from a secret ballot."
The expulsion motion will be moved in the names of party officers, the Taoiseach; the Minister for Social and Family Affairs, Ms Coughlan; Mr Hugh Dolan and Mr Gene Fitzgerald.
The Taoiseach is expected forcefully to outline his reasons for demanding Ms Flynn's expulsion from the party: "He wants this sorted, and quickly," said one senior Fianna Fáil figure.
A number of figures, including Ms Flynn's father, Mr Pádraig Flynn, and Senator Mary White have been lobbying on her behalf, though the majority of executive members accept the need to expel her.
"She has made this too much of a direct challenge to the Taoiseach. It is either her, or him," one TD told The Irish Times last night. "Can you imagine the situation if she managed to block the motion?"
A significant number of Ms Flynn's supporters are expected to travel from Mayo tonight for the meeting, though there are signs of division within the county organisation.
Mayo-based Mr Dara Calleary, who sits on the National Executive as a member of the Committee of 15, said that he and Mayo colleagues are coming under "tremendous pressure" to support Ms Flynn's cause.
However, the second of Fianna Fáil's two cumainn in Castlebar yesterday told the party's general secretary, Mr Seán Dorgan, that it supported Ms Flynn's ejection from the party.
The Castlebar town FF cumann, as it is locally known, is made up of breakaway members from the long-standing Micheál Ó Moráin cumann in the town, which includes Ms Flynn and her father.
The town cumann's chairman, Mr James Murray, expressed annoyance that Ms Flynn has repeatedly claimed to have the unanimous backing of the Castlebar cumann: "That isn't the case," he declared.
The Mayo TD sent a letter to the Fianna Fáil general secretary in recent days demanding to know the meaning of the phrase "conduct unbecoming" in her particular case, party sources said.
This led to a reply yesterday, circulated to members of the National Executive, which made it clear that the findings of the Supreme Court and High Court against her justified the charge.
A full attendance is unlikely given the short notice, but up to 80 people are expected at the meeting, which could last up to four hours "in the worst-case scenario", executive members told The Irish Times.
