Pretenders to the throne of Eddie McGrady in South Down, an SDLP stronghold, will privately admit they stand no real chance of overthrowing the constituency's king.
The SDLP chief whip has comfortably consolidated his Westminster vote since 1987, when he eventually ousted the former Conservative Party MP, Enoch Powell.
Mr McGrady eroded the UUP vote over eight years and three elections to secure a majority of 731 votes over his longtime opponent. He tightened his grip on the seat at the 1992 Westminster elections and was returned with a winning margin of 6,342 over the UUP.
Mr McGrady then extended his winning margin to almost 10,000 votes over the Ulster Unionist Dermot Nesbitt in 1997, when the total poll was 26,181.
"McGradyland" - as rival parties refer to South Down - also returned three SDLP representatives in the 1998 Northern Ireland Assembly elections, giving the party a 45 per cent share of the vote in a constituency which traditionally enjoys a high turnout.
Mr McGrady secured his Assembly seat on the first count with 10,373 votes. His closest rival, Mr Mick Murphy, of Sinn Fein, won his seat on the sixth count. Dermot Nesbitt of the UUP, Jim Wells of the DUP and the two additional SDLP representatives took the final four seats.
The redrawing of constituency boundaries in the early 1980s and again in 1994, favouring nationalists, has been instrumental in the party maintaining its firm hold. Indeed, a spectacular turn of events would be needed to shift power away from the SDLP, which also holds a majority of seats on Down District Council.
With Mr McGrady a safe bet, the focus has shifted to the contest for runner-up.
The DUP has decided to contest the seat for the first time in almost 20 years by running Jim Wells, who will undoubtedly take a portion of the 16,248 votes secured by Dermot Nesbitt in 1997, when he stood as the sole unionist candidate.
Mr Nesbitt, a junior minister in the Northern Ireland Executive, has received a special exemption from the UUP rule preventing members holding a seat in the Assembly and at Westminster.
Sinn Fein recently settled on the veteran republican and former IRA prisoner, Mick Murphy, as its candidate in South Down. Mr Aidan Carlin, a local Sinn Fein councillor, who was initially selected, stepped aside to give Mr Murphy the chance to capitalise on his Assembly vote. Rostrevor-based Mr Murphy netted only 5,127 votes in 1997, but there has been growth in republican support in the interim.
Alliance has yet to officially announce its candidate for South Down, but sources said Ms Betty Campbell, a party representative on Lisburn Borough Council, would be contesting the seat.