Front Line: Jack Fairweather reports from the Iraq-Kuwait border on the war plan and mood of the troops
On the eve of war against Iraq the country as the heart of British and American military preparations hums in anticipation.
Gone is the air of doubt and introspection that has hung over the hundreds of camps built over the past six months in the Kuwaiti desert. The troops have followed the debate at the United Nations, but "all the talking is over with", an American soldier said yesterday, standing at a border checkpoint, one of many US troops to have been stationed in Kuwait since October.
"But now this is it. This is our moment of truth" - his words echoing those of George Bush, whose ultimatum given to Saddam Hussein on Monday has begun the final countdown to war.
The soldiers' sombre expression revealed just how few hours were left. Although the mood in Kuwait City has remained calm, out in the military zone that covers half of the country there is now the sense, according to one Western observer, that "we are on the verge of Armageddon".
Yesterday evening the final buses carrying American troops arrived in slow convoys, while overhead helicopter patrols flew in attack formation and war planes rumbled somewhere above Iraq's southern no-fly zone.
In the past 24 hours a blackout for military bases has been put in place, meaning that yesterday evening the barren desert was illuminated only by the lights of the 120-mile road to Basra, Iraq's main city in the south. That, and a distant glow of Iraqi oil refineries in the town of Safat, that lies just past the border with Iraq.
"It's easy," said one British soldier stationed at Camp Coyote where the 7th Armoured Brigade is based. "Second refinery on the left and straight on until morning," he said, displaying a rare moment of humour among the troops stationed at the camp.
As the deadline for war approaches military officials have begun relaying final battle orders to the 180,000 troops now stationed in the country. The 7th Armoured Brigade is one of a number of British units expected to play a key role in the taking of Basra as part of a two-stage operation, with a pause to allow time for Saddam Hussein to be toppled by his own people.
A senior British officer said: "No one is going to be charging into Baghdad. Fighting in urban areas is a hugely risky business." If the regime doesn't fall under the shock of the initial assault, a stand-off around Baghdad is "a likely scenario".
Troops are under order to do everything to minimise military casualties and damage to the civilian infrastructure, including Iraq's oil industry, in order to create good will and apply further pressure on the Baghdad regime to turn on Saddam and remove the need for an attack on the capital.
Capturing the huge and hugely exploited southern Iraq oil fields is seen as a key element in the allied plan to force Saddam out.
"The military planning takes full account of the economic significance of the oil fields for Iraq's future," said the officer. "If you can get them intact there is a huge psychological message to flash to Baghdad. Sixty per cent of the oil comes from the South."
The intention is that demoralised, ill-equipped Iraqi troops barring the road to Baghdad will surrender at the first opportunity and that the invaders will be welcomed as liberators.
"Certainly in the south the Iraqi army is not that well equipped and their resolve to fight does not appear great," said the officer. "But we are still prepared for some resistance."
Planners have drawn up "hard" and "soft" options to take account of how much fight the Iraqis show. "If you can bring about the defeat of the Iraqi army with a minimum of destruction to civilian infrastructure, mosques and even the Iraqi army itself, then the second phase of post-conflict infrastructure is so much easier."
The intention is to hand over to the Iraqis "a basically functioning country without creating a legacy of hate." The advancing forces will look for every opportunity to bypass Iraqi formations and arrange local ceasefires to demonstrate their goodwill towards civilians.
"It is about not picking a fight unduly but reserving the full right to use maximum force if problems arise," he said. "That's firmly understood in the British division. It's a more subtle approach. It all comes down to the end-state, which is achieving regime change. Bringing the Iraqi people on board is a very good way to do that."
Resistance is expected to grow as forces approach the capital and encounter Republican Guard and Special Republican Guard units.
Once at the gates of the capital there is no intention to fall in with Saddam's declared plan for a bloody showdown in the streets of the capital. Allied troops are likely to hold back and wait for the collapse of the regime. "That is the plan," said the officer.
But as the night fell on the eve of war, in the Kuwaiti desert it was with a sense that the impending invasion could bring forth any number of disasters.