Formidable agenda passes to Ireland after Major finally releases the ball

WITHOUT finding a solution to their problems they would, eventually, call a truce, only to take up arms again whenever the occasion…

WITHOUT finding a solution to their problems they would, eventually, call a truce, only to take up arms again whenever the occasion demanded. - Machiavelli on the feuding of medieval Florence

IT WAS, as they say in soccer parlance, a game of two halves.

The first was a defensive, acrimonious exchange, during which Britain held onto the ball and refused to play.

But in the second, with most players pulling together, the pace accelerated, the match ending with the ball firmly passed to Ireland with the firm injunction, "Go to it lads!"

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Who won? In politics, unlike soccer, winning is largely a subjective matter, and the game never ends.

The British Prime Minister, Mr Major, certainly thought he came out on top, or professed to think so. But most observers and players were making a quite different assessment.

For Ireland there is enormous relief that the resolution of the beef crisis has cleared the decks for the presidency. But the summit's decision to give added impetus to the deliberations in the Inter Governmental Conference by calling a special summit in Dublin is not so enthusiastically welcomed.

Officials and Ministers are determined, however, to show that the Irish Presidency is prepared to shoulder any burden put on it:

The agenda set for the presidency by the European Council is now quite formidable. The Florence summit has asked for a number of specific reports, all of them substantial:

. a draft treaty for the IGC, which hopes to complete its work during the subsequent Dutch presidency;

. the completion of the work on the relationship between the "ins" and "outs" of the single currency, with the details of a new exchange rate mechanism and the mechanics of an economic stability pact for the states in the single currency;

. a major report on progress in co operation on drugs and crime;

. a major report on progress by the members in implementing agreed macroeconomic and structural reforms to boost jobs;

. a comparative review of EU taxation systems to see if some harmonisation is possible.

On the foreign policy front, Ireland faces the challenge of supervising the EU's continuing role in Bosnia; of upgrading the EU-US relationship and that with postelection Russia; of forging a relationship with Israel's new government; of brokering a trade deal with South Africa; and of preparing for the important World Trade Organisation (WTO) ministerial conference in Singapore in December.

And then there is beef and, as Margaret Thatcher once put it, "events, events, events."

On most of the above Florence simply acknowledged the work in hand. It was largely a procedural summit, looking at how business should be handled without touching on the substance, as it did indeed on beef.

The leaders did, however, offer a new impulse to discussions and some hints of pitfalls ahead.

While the British Prime Minister, Mr Major, warmly welcomed the speeding up of the IGC process, he made it clear that Britain's position on fundamental issues was not changing.

And there was some disappointment that what appeared to be an emerging consensus on the need for a treaty chapter on employment was dashed by a clear signal of opposition from Chancellor Kohl. Creating jobs is the business of national government, not the EU, he argues.

The Taoiseach, Mr Bruton, told his colleagues that they had to do more to bring the EU back to the people. Europe, he said, was about peace, secure jobs, sound money and safe streets.

Work in the IGC will also be complicated by the call of the Belgian Prime Minister, backed by others, to find a means of imposing sanctions on those involved in what the Tanaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Spring called serial vetoing".

He told journalists: "We will have to draw the lessons during the IGC ... We will have to take qualified majority voting to the maximum to avoid this kind of boycott."

Mr Bruton was sympathetic to the aim but foresaw drafting problems. He pinned his hope, he told journalists, on the widespread realisation among member states that the tactic was counter productive and had probably delayed the outcome the British sought.

Widespread, maybe. Unanimous, definitely not.

Although Mr Major was at pains to explain that the circumstances leading to the use of nonco operation were "unique" in the history of the EU, he did not go as far as repudiating the tactic. And he boasted once again that it had been what had brought success.

Diplomats here believe, however, that the British are unlikely to rush precipitately back into the strategy if blocked on phases of the lifting of the ban. They hope they can confine beef fall out to the Council of Agriculture Ministers - a challenge of no small order for the diplomatic skills of Mr Yates.

We are far from out of the woods, although one of the more vexacious problems, compensation to beef producers, may see movement today at the Farm Council in Luxembourg following the leaders' decision to increase support from £520 million to £680 million.

And the damage to Britain's standing and relationships is difficult to overestimate. Well used to Britain's semi detached relationship, the leaders all saw the obstructionism as a step that went well beyond the bounds of legitimate defence of national interests.

The Swedish Prime Minister, Mr Goran Persson, spoke for many when he warned that "Britain will pay a very high price for this . . . Things like this will be remembered."

The Commission President, Mr Jacques Santer, was putting a brave face on it. "We lost two months. But nevertheless we can be very glad that the crisis is over and therefore I think the past is for the historian," he said.

"Of course we are friends and we will remain friends," he said of Britain and the EU. "I was very worried, speaking very sincerely and frankly, about this anti European propaganda in Britain and also about the anti British propaganda . . . on the Continent."

But he said he believed both Mr Major and Britain's Labour Party would "stick" to the European Union.

"I think there is a majority, a real majority of citizens in the United Kingdom, who are sticking to the European policy. We now have to move forward, we must not miss this unique and historic chance to reconcile for the first time our continent," he said.

The one concrete policy step forward at the summit was the clearing of the last hurdle in the Europol Convention row. The union's embryonic police intelligence centre in The Hague can move up a gear once the Convention is ratified by the member states.

Less positive was the decision to refer back to the Council of Foreign Ministers proposals from a disappointed Mr Jacques Santer for £800 million in extra funding for major infrastructural projects.

The move is a blow to Mr Santer's prestige and his Confidence Pact for Jobs, otherwise formally approved.

The meeting did see warm support for the preparatory work on the single currency. But finalising the detailed preparations of the key "ins" and "outs" framework will be a real challenge to the Minister for Finance, Mr Quinn.

There is a nice historical irony in this: Europe's new currency taking shape in the sturdy fortress of the Medicis, Europe's first truly international bankers.

And so to Dublin.

Patrick Smyth

Patrick Smyth

Patrick Smyth is former Europe editor of The Irish Times