FRANCE: Paris is seeking international support for a UN resolution to press ahead with arms inspections in Iraq, writes Lara Marlowe.
France, in concert with Russia and China, has devised a strategy to counter US tactics over Iraq in the UN Security Council.
While the US continues to exert what a high-ranking French official called "enormous pressure" on the nine temporary members, including Ireland, President Jacques Chirac has consolidated a plan which Paris believes has a chance of placing Washington before a fait accompli by outnumbering it in the Security Council, and achieving a unanimous vote on a resolution.
Mr Chirac developed the strategy over the past week in a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a face-to-face meeting with the Chinese Prime Minister, Mr Zhu Rongji, and a subsequent phone call to Mr Zhu after he consulted China's President Jiang Zemin.
The proposed US draft resolution, which would allow Washington to strike Iraq automatically in the event of a "material breach" of UNSC resolutions, has no chance of passing, French sources concur. The UN Charter gives the Security Council - not individual members - the prerogative to use force, and it is the council which defines what constitutes a material breach.
"Those who want a resolution must present a text that is acceptable to the council; otherwise it will be voted down," the high-ranking official said. "The US proposal as we know it will not pass. It is dividing the international community. France is working diplomatically to preserve peace."
The official said France had "tested ideas" on other permanent and temporary members of the Security Council, and believed its proposals had the support of a majority of the 15. Although France has talked publicly of a two-step process, diplomats refused to discuss the hypothetical second resolution that could authorise the use of force.
"We're talking about the first resolution only. We could propose it. Any member - why not Ireland? - could propose it," the official suggested. The resolution would acknowledge Iraq's offer of full co-operation and the unconditional return of inspectors. "How could the US say 'no'? How could they veto it?" the official asked.
Paris is flexible on the time-frame for putting forward its plan, which could be proposed "within days or weeks". In the meantime, France wants the chief weapons inspector, Dr Hans Blix, and the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mr Mohamed El-Baradei, to move ahead with preparations for the return of inspectors to Baghdad.
Originally scheduled to arrive on October 15th, the advance team could still move by the third or fourth week of this month, the source said.
"By then, the Security Council could take a decision. We don't think a resolution is technically necessary, but the US insists on it, so why not? It would wield more power if the decision were taken unanimously."
The 1998 Memorandum of Understanding concluded by UN Secretary General Mr Kofi Annan in Baghdad provides for inspection of eight "presidential sites", the French official noted, saying the issue had been distorted by English-language media.
"It lays down some special conditions; in essence that inspectors have to knock on the door first. If we can improve on that, so much the better. But it's not worth starting a war for." But Iraq has already refused to abide by any new UNSC resolution. "We have no illusions about the Iraqi regime," the French official said. "They had better not play the fools. If a new resolution demands they fulfil obligations they already agreed to, how could they refuse?"
Paris is gambling that neither President Bush nor Saddam Hussein could reject a unanimous Security Council resolution endorsing the return of inspectors and the agreement reached with the Iraqis in Vienna. "Blix and Baradei [who concluded the agreement with the Iraqi delegation led by Gen Amer Al-Saadi\] know best what they need," the official said, adding that Paris had complete confidence in Dr Blix, who is Swedish.
When he reported to UN headquarters in New York on Thursday, Dr Blix spoke of "loose ends" to be resolved with the Iraqis.
This referred to Iraqi reluctance to guarantee the security of inspectors in the "no-fly zones" which Iraq does not entirely control, the French official said, and could be resolved "if the Iraqis know what's good for them".
The Iraqis might also be well advised to allow individuals to be interviewed by inspectors in the absence of Iraqi officials, possibly outside Iraq, as demanded by Washington.
"More weapons were destroyed in the 1990s by inspectors than during the Gulf War," said the official.
"The inspection system is not 100 per cent perfect, but it is more efficient than war."