KOSOVO: Kosovo's election will determine who speaks for the former Yugoslav province in talks on its future next year, writes Tim Judah.
The last time Kosovo was in the news this volatile Balkan province was in flames. Today its people go to the polls, however, unlike the coverage given to the violence last March this election will get very little coverage in the world's media. And yet, this poll is important - and not just for Kosovars.
A NATO-led force ensures security in the province while the UN has been running things from day to day, while also building local institutions.
Today Kosovars will be voting for a new parliament and government. Because the UN still holds the most important instruments of power the government itself is not so powerful.
However, the reason this poll is so important is that it will determine who speaks for Kosovo, at least on the Albanian side, in talks on the province's future expected to begin in the middle of next year. Ever since 1999 western policymakers have cleverly succeeded in freezing the question of final status. However, it is no longer possible to keep putting off the question.
The UN resolution, which ended the Kosovo war in 1999, gave the UN the authority to run the province but it also left its sovereignty with the state of Serbia and Montenegro, which was then still called Yugoslavia.
The problem is that 90 per cent of Kosovo's estimated 1.8 million people are ethnic Albanians solidly in favour of independence. They would rather return to war than have any renewed link with Serbia foisted upon them.
However, while Serbia retains sovereignty - and continues to insist on doing so - it is hard to see how Kosovo can be given independence. But if it is not, then it is likely that next year's talks will fail and ethnic Albanian hardliners will be sorely tempted to go back to the woods, dig up their guns and turn them, not just against the few remaining Serbs in Kosovo, but against the NATO-led force, which includes Irish troops.
And indeed frustration is rising, also whipped up by politicians who promise paradise after independence. Unemployment in Kosovo is high, the province has already absorbed some $2 million in aid money, and 40 per cent of GDP comes from remittances and grants.
None of Kosovo's present leadership have the courage to tell their people that jobs are the main issue and that if independence came tomorrow this would not change.
In fact today's poll is unlikely to make much difference on the Albanian side, except for one possible major change. The main Albanian parties will continue to be the old pro-independence movement of President Ibrahim Rugova and two which emerged from the guerrilla leadership of the Kosovo Liberation Army which fought the Serbs until 1999.
The major change is likely to be the election of Mr Veton Surroi, the urbane publisher of one of Kosovo's main daily papers. With a seat in parliament Mr Surroi will have the legitimacy to be picked for the Kosovo negotiating team. Few analysts doubt that he is virtually the only prominent Kosovo Albanian with the skills necessary to do business with the Serbs. On the Serb side all eyes will be on how many Kosovo Serbs actually vote. To vote, argues the Serbian government of premier Mr Vojislav Kostunica, is to legitimise a system, which is inexorably leading Kosovo, studded with its great Serbian Orthodox churches, to independence. By contrast, argues Serbian President, Mr Boris Tadic, the only way to keep Kosovo is for Serbs to vote.
In fact Serbian leaders are not being honest with their own people. They say they would like Kosovo to be an autonomous part of Serbia again. But if it was then 20 per cent of Serbia's population would be ethnic Albanian with an important say in parliament and government. This would never be acceptable to the vast majority of Serbs. Besides, Serbia is virtually bankrupt and has no way of paying for the province.
Today Serbian leaders are pushing for Serbian areas within Kosovo to be given autonomy but, almost bizarrely, the plan foresees Serb refugees being resettled in majority ethnic Albanian areas so as to link up small areas where Serbs live today.
It has echoes of Israel's West Bank settlement policy and, with no money, and certainly with no willing settlers, it is a plan that has no future.
So a new Balkan crisis may be in the offing. But recently there have been signs that something important is changing.
In a new book Mr Dobrica Cosic, once regarded as the father of Serbian nationalism, has written: "Today's generations should be freed of the struggle of Kosovo, conscientiously accepting the loss of what has been lost by past generations."
An article in the leading Belgrade daily Politika on Tuesday also argued that the loss of Kosovo would be cushioned if, with western help, Serbia was better able to absorb the inevitable tide of refugees who would flood into Serbia.
Such talk may be an indication that some in Serbia feel the time is ripe to raise the question of the loss of Kosovo. That would be good for Kosovo, good for the west and good for Serbia also - to be free of the burden of Kosovo and the Albanians, who might make good neighbours, but with whom Serbia cannot live in a fruitful partnership.
Tim Judah is the author of Kosovo: War and Revenge published by Yale University Press