While the Northern Bank robbery was very well planned, there is no guarantee it was a paramilitary operation, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor
The first and obvious question asked in Belfast yesterday was: was Ireland's heist of the centuries the work of the IRA?
The second question was: or was it the INLA, loyalist paramilitaries or republican dissidents? Or was it an organised criminal gang with no paramilitary links?
Are there any "ordinary" gangs that well organised to stage a £20-£30 million robbery? One former IRA man, Sam Millar, who was involved in a multi-million dollar robbery in New York State said whoever did it would have been planning the operation for up to two years.
PSNI Assistant Chief Constable Sam Kinkaid, who has overall command of the investigation wasn't saying who he believed was responsible, which was a sensible approach. Bad enough to be landed with the Christmas headache of trying to retrieve the money and apprehend the bank robbers without drawing himself into a political row.
Mr Kinkaid said the robbery could be paramilitary or non-paramilitary. Up to yesterday evening other well-placed sources said they couldn't definitively say who did it either.
If it finally transpires that it was the work of paramilitaries it will have significant political implications, particularly if it was the IRA who raided the bank vaults.
It would probably wreck any chance of the DUP agreeing to share power with Sinn Féin in the short term, and could put back the chances of a deal to resurrect devolution until autumn next year or 2006.
Mr Bill Lowry, former head of RUC Special Branch, pointed the initial finger of suspicion at the IRA, although he also conceded that it could have been the work of other paramilitaries or former paramilitaries who had now fully embraced general crime.
Mr Millar admired the level of organisation involved. "Whether it was republican, loyalist or criminal, they knew what they were doing. They were incredibly well organised," he told The Irish Times last night.
With one other accomplice, Mr Millar robbed Brinks of $7.4 million in Rochester in New York state in 1993. Unlike yesterday's operation, the Brinks robbery was something of a comedy of errors. Mr Millar could have escaped with about $16 million dollars but had to leave half behind because the van they used was too small.
About $3.5 million was stored in an apartment where he lived in New York city, taking up a space eight feet by eight feet and touching the ceiling. Millar was eventually caught but escaped a 60-year sentence because of something of a legal technicality.
"Unlike us, whoever were responsible were very sophisticated. They knew they were dealing with a huge amount of money and needed a large enough vehicle or vehicles to carry it away," said Mr Millar.
He reckoned the gang could have involved several people, some of whom would have been staking out for a year or more the bank officials whose families they held hostage.
"I'm sure they had the patience to test that the officials they used were sufficiently senior to have access to the vaults," he added. "This was very smooth. I suspect they had it all worked out over a long time. They knew they weren't going in there just to take half a million."
The gang wouldn't have the storage problems he had in New York.
"They probably had underground bunkers built for the money," he said.
Spending the money though will be a problem as much of the cash would be in Northern Bank notes and also in Ulster Bank and Bank of Ireland and First Trust Bank notes, which are all peculiar to Northern Ireland.
As everyone in Northern Ireland knows, these notes generally will not be cashed in stores and banks in England and Wales, although some places in Scotland will take them.
There would also be Bank of England sterling notes, which can be used anywhere in the UK, but it is likely that the bulk of the cash would be in Northern Irish notes, which means that most of the haul would have to be spent or laundered in Northern Ireland.
Mr Lowry said that because 20 or more people were involved in aspects of the robbery, one of the gang might not be able to resist boasting about the haul.
"That is where the police can strike, and probably strike very early," he told BBC Radio Ulster.
Mr Millar however felt that such was the cunning and organisation of the robbers that they would keep their mouths shut until it was safe to start spending the loot.
"Where this gang has the advantage is that it probably has the patience to bide its time."