MIDDLE EAST:Israel continues to expand settlements and restrict Palestinian movement and trade, writes Michael Jansen
PALESTINIANS, ISRAELIS, Lebanese, Iraqis and Iranians faced domestic division and instability during 2008 and could very well suffer serious crises in the coming year when they go to the polls if steps are not taken to reduce tensions and antagonisms.
Israel's onslaught on Gaza has deepened the rift between the secular Palestinian Fatah movement, which administers the West Bank, and Muslim Hamas, which rules Gaza. By blaming Hamas for Israel's attack, President Mahmoud Abbas ended any possibility of an Egyptian-mediated reconciliation that could reunite Palestinians and lead to the formation of a national government.
This rift began when Fatah detained hundreds of Hamas supporters, called on teachers and doctors in Gaza to go on strike, and denied pay to Gaza's civil servants who remain on the job. Hamas retaliated by taking action against Fatah loyalists in Gaza and boycotting unity talks in Cairo. A ceasefire between Hamas and Israel reduced attacks, but Israel tightened its siege and blockade of the strip, impoverishing its 1.5 million inhabitants. Hamas resumed missile attacks on Israel when the truce ended on December 19th.
Hamas is likely to insist that Mr Abbas step down when his term ends on January 9th, and that parliamentary elections take place in early 2010, when the mandate of the current Hamas-majority legislature ends. But voters back Fatah's call for simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections. Mr Abbas is threatening to hold elections in the West Bank alone, disenfranchising Gaza.
Forced to resign due to corruption allegations, outgoing Israeli premier Ehud Olmert warned that time is running out for the two-state solution involving the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel. Unless Israel is prepared to withdraw from most of the West Bank and Palestinian neighbourhoods in East Jerusalem, he argued, an apartheid state will result.
Nevertheless, Israel continues to expand settlements and imposes severe restrictions on Palestinian movement and trade.
The hawkish Likud, which was set to triumph in the February parliamentary election under former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu (1996-99), has accused the Kadima-Labour coalition of being soft on Hamas. But by mounting a massive attack on Gaza, the coalition may have boosted its chances of taking power once again. Whatever party leads Israel's next government is likely to give free reign to settlers and take a tough line with Hamas. The government could also strike Hizbullah in Lebanon, or attack Iran with the objective of halting its nuclear programme. Any of these actions would inflame the volatile region.
After 18 months of instability, Lebanon's pro-western govern- ment and the opposition, led by the Shia Hizbullah, an ally of Iran and Syria, were persuaded by Qatar to elect a president and form a broad government to prepare for parliamentary elections next spring. But Sunni Muslim and Maronite Christian elements in the ruling coalition remain hostile towards Hizbullah and could react violently if the opposition secures a majority in parliament, shifting the balance of power.
While security in Iraq improved considerably during 2008, ethnic and sectarian tensions rose. The Kurds seek to annex to their autonomous region the city of Kirkuk and oil-rich Tamim province. But Kirkuk's Arab and Turkomen inhabitants reject Kurdish designs and are prepared to resist by force. There are tensions between Sunni militiamen who fought al-Qaeda and the Shia-dominated government which is reluctant to recruit these men into the armed forces and police. Sunnis and Shias are engaged in a power struggle in Sunni-majority provinces while armed Shia factions are competing in the south. Rivalries are likely to intensify ahead of provincial and parliamentary elections and the north could explode into violence if a repeatedly postponed referendum is held to decide the fate of Kirkuk.
High oil prices enabled Iran to successfully resist western pressure to suspend its nuclear programme but sanctions began to bite after the oil prices began to fall in mid-2008. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's economic reforms were stymied as Iranians prepare for June's presidential poll. Although he retains the support of the military and Supreme Guide Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, several candidates plan to stand for the presidency, risking confrontation with Ahmadinejad's powerful allies.