CONSTITUENCY PROFILE: LONGFORD-WESTMEATH:GEOGRAPHY COULD be the big decider in Longford-Westmeath, where there will be a battle royal both between and within political parties.
In the four-seat constituency there are two likely winners – Labour’s Willie Penrose and Fine Gael’s James Bannon.
One of the big questions is whether Fianna Fáil’s formidable Athlone-based Mary O’Rourke can hold on or if Longford-based Peter Kelly will keep what is expected to be a single seat for the party.
A question for Fine Gael is whether Senator Nicky McFadden or Mullingar-based councillor Peter Burke will take a second seat for the party. On an exceptional day for Fine Gael, both could win, if Fianna Fáil is below 20 per cent and Fine Gael above 40 per cent.
A TD since 1992, Penrose topped the poll in 2007. A formidable vote-catcher for Labour, he may well have more than the 11,000 likely quota in the first count.
Penrose is unlikely, however, given current opinion polls, to bring in his running mate, Longford-based former Progressive Democrat TD and now councillor, Mae Sexton.
Fine Gael’s Bannon, from Legan, Co Longford, who was first elected to the Dáil in 2007, has a very strong vote in the county. The Longford electorate tends to opt for candidates within the county so Bannon should comfortably retain his seat.
Fianna Fáil is running three candidates; the two outgoing TDs are joined by the youngest councillor on Westmeath County Council, Robert Troy, who has the same Ballynacargy base as Penrose in the Mullingar area and Fine Gael councillor Peter Burke.
His location, first-time candidacy and the pasting that Fianna Fáil is facing rule him out of contention but he is likely to transfer more to Mary O’Rourke in Westmeath than Peter Kelly in Longford.
In a crowded Athlone arena, O’Rourke must contend with former Fianna Fáil member and now Independent and well-known local town and county councillor Kevin “Boxer” Moran, who will affect her vote.
Sinn Féin candidate Paul Hogan is expected to more than double his 2,136 votes in 2007.
McFadden has also been building a high profile in the town. Early in the campaign she was favourite for a second Fine Gael seat.
She could still win out but Fine Gael’s Mullingar-based Burke, a councillor and a chartered accountant, is gaining ground in the town and is expected to outpoll the Fianna Fáil candidate Troy.
If Mullingar is to elect a second TD after Penrose, Burke is best placed. If O’Rourke, a serious constituency worker, can stay ahead of the Fine Gael senator, she could keep the Fianna Fáil seat.
However, the Longford electorate is very geographically conscious and votes locally.
LONGFORD-WESTMEATH 4 SEATS
OUTGOING TDs:Mary O'Rourke (FF), Peter Kelly (FF), James Bannon (FG), Willie Penrose (Lab).
CANDIDATES:Peter Kelly (FF), Mary O'Rourke (FF) Roberty Troy (FF); James Bannon (FG), Peter Burke (FG), Nicky McFadden (FG);
Willie Penrose (LAB), Mae Sexton (LAB); Siobhan Kinahan (GP); Paul Hogan (SF); John Boland (Ind), Benny Cooney
(Ind), David D’Arcy (Ind), Donal Jackson (Ind), Kevin (Boxer) Moran (Ind).
LOCAL ISSUES:Jobs, emigration, anger at the banks, the huge salaries of those in financial institutions and the wipeout of investments in
bank shares are all issues raised. Unfinished "ghost" housing estates are an added concern in Longford and parts of Westmeath.
VERDICT: FF 1, FG 2, Lab 1
