ANALYSIS:The new Government is still enjoying its honeymoon, but it has barely scratched the surface of what needs to be done to put us on the road to recovery, writes STEPHEN COLLINS,Political Editor
IT HAS been roses all the way for Enda Kenny and his Government for the first 100 days but the big, hard decisions have yet to be made. The Fine Gael-Labour Coalition started off with the advantage of being able to draw on a huge well of goodwill from an electorate desperate for a new beginning.
The cathartic decision of the voters on February 25th to punish Fianna Fáil for being in power for so long transformed the political landscape in one fell swoop.
That left the incoming Government with a massive majority and the freedom to take whatever decisive action it deemed necessary. The fact that the honeymoon is still in full swing 100 days on is a testament to just how much the country needed a change of government. It may also be a sign that the new Government has barely started scratching the surface of what needs to be done to put us on the road to recovery.
One of the big surprises is that Enda Kenny, who was perceived for so long as the main weakness of Fine Gael, has turned out to be the Val Doonican of Irish politics: an overnight success after 35 years in the business.
His legions of media critics haven’t gone away and are waiting to pounce on any perceived faux pas but the public seems happy with his performance. To have a leader who smiles as he walks to work in the morning, emitting a palpable sense of optimism is a welcome relief to an electorate battered by nearly three years of bad news.
Kenny has turned out to be a far better Dáil performer as Taoiseach than he ever was in opposition. He has had the advantage of a fractured Opposition but then again few would have believed a few months ago that he would be able to handle Micheál Martin, Gerry Adams and the Joe Higgins/ Shane Ross double act with such ease.
Kenny also had the good fortune to be in power when Queen Elizabeth made her historic first visit to the State and, as if that wasn’t enough, President Barack Obama came hot on her heels to add to the gaiety of the nation.
The net effect was to take the mind of the country off the litany of woes that has absorbed it for the past two years. That in itself has given the country a lift for the first 100 days of the Coalition.
Some of the election pledges have been honoured in that 100 days, some others partially implemented and some of them abandoned.
The biggest U-turn to date has been the decision to recapitalise the banks despite all the fighting talk during the election of burning bondholders and standing up to the European Central Bank.
Still, the Government has suffered no negative consequences for simply walking away from some of the wilder commitments it made on the banks during the campaign. It raises the issue of why Fine Gael and Labour bothered to make so many promises in the first place.
The rescheduling of the country’s massive bank debt is as far off as it ever was and even the reduction in the interest rate on the EU-IMF loan which the previous government had expected to happen has still not taken place. The main reason for this appears to be the fit of pique into which President Nicolas Sarkozy of France has flown as a result of the sharp exchange of words with Kenny at his first European Council meeting.
Kenny gave Sarkozy a flea in his ear for suggesting that the Irish corporate tax rate would have to be increased in return for softer terms on the bailout.
The Taoiseach’s attitude was applauded at home and, while his stance contributed to his early popularity, it may not have been the wisest course to adopt. A more nuanced “No” to Sarkozy might have been a better approach because the blunt rejection of the French demand has clearly created a problem, but it should not be an insoluble one.
The promise to implement a “jobs budget”, even though the term was modified to a more modest “jobs initiative”, was honoured. A worrying aspect of the initiative, though, is that it is to be funded by a raid on the pensions of private sector workers whose entitlements are already being eroded.
Taken in tandem with new regulations for the pensions industry the changes have the capacity to destroy the pensions of tens of thousands of workers and that could have hugely negative consequences for the Coalition down the line.
The election pledge to reverse the cut in the minimum wage has been fulfilled but was part of the plan but so also were changes in the antiquated rules governing weekend working rates which have still to be agreed at Cabinet.
The spat between Labour TDs and Minister for Enterprise and Employment Richard Bruton over the issue did not augur well for relations between the Coalition parties when bigger decisions have to be made in the autumn.
Neither did the objections to Minister for the Environment Phil Hogan’s modest proposal for a household charge next year to be introduced in tandem with the roll-out of water meters for all households. Both measures are long overdue and are part of the EU-IMF programme in any case.
Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform Brendan Howlin started well by instigating a comprehensive spending review telling his colleagues bluntly that they will have to come up with real savings and reforms by the autumn.
That process will be critical to this Government’s long-term success or failure.
The abolition of the Health Service Executive by Minister for Health James Reilly is little more than symbolic.
Whether he can deliver fundamental reform of the health service and introduce the much touted insurance scheme for all will be the real test. The same applies to Minister for Social Protection Joan Burton. Reform is badly needed to make the social welfare system relevant to the needs of the jobs market but it is a highly complex and sensitive area and change will be slow and difficult.
It is the same story in almost all Government departments. The first 100 days have gone well but it is the first 1,000 days that will be the real test, as Brian Cowen and his ministers learned the hard way.