An unknown to most voters a week ago, Green Party TD Eamon Ryan now has the Áras in his sights, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Correspondent.
Softly-spoken, handsome, likeable, Eamon Ryan could have emerged from the Central Casting School for Successful Politicians. Yet, a week ago, Ryan was little known outside Leinster House, parts of his Dublin South constituency and environmentalist circles. Helped by a week of drama, some extraordinary good luck in the face of woeful bungling and partial Labour support, Ryan, however, is emerging as a credible presidential candidate.
Today, the Green Party's National Council will meet in the Community Centre in Clonakilty, Co Cork, to rule finally on whether the party should contest the election. Despite fears that the election campaign could break the party's fragile coffers, the grassroots, particularly, appear ready to close their eyes and jump into the fray.
Ryan, a first-time Dáil deputy, is, perhaps, fortunate that this is so, because there is little doubt but that he has "bounced" the Greens to the edge of the biggest campaign of their lives. Beneath Ryan's good looks and charm, there is also that other essential ingredient for those making their way through the thorny undergrowth of politics: ambition.
His focus on the presidential race began nearly 18 months ago, when he began to argue inside the party that it should put forward a candidate. The idea has rattled around the party for much of the time since, going nowhere very fast, as Ryan ran through a possible list of candidates. For a while, the former United Nations official, Denis Halliday, who was being encouraged by Dublin North Central Independent TD Finian McGrath, was a possibility, but momentum ebbed away.
However, Ryan's concentration on the issue came to the fore when the six Green Party TDs left Dublin earlier this month for a two-day "think-in". Such meetings, away from the pressures and distractions of Leinster House, have become a feature of the political calendar in recent years.
Unlike Fianna Fáil, however, which opted this year for the invigorating west Cork air of the Inchydoney Lodge and Spa, the Greens headed for an organic farm in Co Carlow. Coolanowle House, Ballickmoyler, is owned by Jimmy Mulhall, who unsuccessfully contested the local elections in Laois for the Progressive Democrats in June.
There, over fresh, crusty bread and home-made soups and vegetables straight from the garden, Ryan again sought to persuade his colleagues and their leader, Trevor Sargent. By then, Ryan was talking about running Wicklow county councillor Deirdre de Burca against the President, Mrs McAleese, rather than himself, a number of sources have told The Irish Times.
The discussion made little headway, so much so that Ryan felt the need to be more forceful when the Green's National Executive - responsible for the day-to-day running of the party - met last Friday week. Ryan told the executive that the Greens should run and that he himself should be the standard-bearer. By now irritated, some colleagues rebuffed him, telling him that he knew party procedures and should follow them.
Later on Friday, Ryan spoke to Finian McGrath, revealing to him his ambition to challenge Mary McAleese.
Last Monday lunchtime, on RTÉ Radio 1's News At One, the Green Party TD went public, giving the impression that his candidacy was already a done deal. The interview provoked one furious Green TD to call RTÉ's Charlie Bird shortly after 2 p.m. to insist that Ryan had gone on a solo run.
What happened in the run-up to Ryan's interview with RTÉ presenter Sean O'Rourke is still in doubt, though events seem to have been sparked by Ryan's discovery that McGrath was going to appear. Fearful that McGrath was going to reveal his plan, and perhaps seeing an opportunity to push matters along, Ryan acted quickly.
Having contacted the Green Party's press officer, Stephen Rawson, Ryan insisted that the party had to keep control of the story. With the programme's deadline fast approaching, Rawson drafted a rushed press statement for RTÉ, announcing Ryan's intentions. However, the last-minute panic was unnecessary as McGrath had never had any intention of revealing the substance of his talks with Ryan. Since Monday, McGrath has gone to considerable trouble to proclaim his innocence in conversations with Green TDs, and his explanations have been accepted.
IN ANY OTHER party, Ryan would have been clobbered, but, so far, most Greens have either accepted that the situation was not of his making, or chosen not to fight about it. Once in the ether, the prospect of his candidacy quickly took shape, particularly after RTÉ's Questions and Answers programme on Monday night. Irked by presenter John Bowman, Labour leader Pat Rabbitte crankily rejected Bowman's assertion that Labour had said it would run a candidate.
Realising that he had come across as a grouch, Rabbitte subsequently softened his tone, particularly when complimenting Ryan. Describing him as the most intelligent new TD elected in 2002, Rabbitte left alive the possibility that Labour might see him right if he was short of nomination signatures. Under the Constitution, candidates (who must be aged over 35) have to be nominated by 20 TDs and senators, or four local councils - though incumbents can nominate themselves.
On the following day, the President, Mrs McAleese, launched her own bid for another seven-year team, mixing humility and enthusiasm in just about the right measure.
Meanwhile, Labour TDs and senators met in Ferrycarrig Hotel, just outside Wexford, to decide on their attitude to the election. Since then, the party's internal divisions have been exposed and Rabbitte has suffered the worst week of his leadership.
By Tuesday evening, Green TDs were a picture of unity, "unanimously" endorsing Ryan's candidacy. But the unanimity is skin-deep, as Trevor Sargent, Dublin South East TD and party chairman John Gormley, and Dublin West TD Paul Gogarty all have serious concerns.
In Ferrycarrig Hotel, former cabinet minister Michael D. Higgins, still limping from two knee operations, roused himself brilliantly to pitch for the Labour nomination. Clearly annoyed by his colleagues' lack of support over the summer, Higgins later said that they had shown "a lack of energy and confidence".
By Wednesday afternoon, Labour TDs and senators had shied away from the race, accepting, reluctantly in many cases, Rabbitte's argument that more pressing matters needed attention. Speaking that afternoon, Rabbitte gave the clearest signal so far that some support for Ryan would be forthcoming if the Greens went ahead.
However, the Greens nearly managed to bungle this opportunity before it got off the ground by issuing a crassly worded press statement at 5.43 p.m. Urging Labour to act swiftly, Sargent said he was "hopeful" of Labour support following its "rejection" of Higgins.
Higgins, accompanied by Dún Laoghaire TD Eamon Gilmore, saw this statement in the RTÉ Six One studio shortly before doing an interview. Describing the statement as "very strange", one senior Labour TD commented: "It was very hurtful. There is no point saying that we were not annoyed."
However, Labour, in public anyway, chose not to make an issue of it.
"You can shrug your shoulders, or get mad. We shrugged," said one party official.
Even some within the Green Party suspected - momentarily, at least - that Sargent was trying to scupper Ryan, though the scale of his subsequent apologies to Labour rule that out.
Questioned on RTÉ's Marian Finucane show on Thursday morning, Ryan got into bother again after he acknowledged that he had used cannabis in the past. Despite some of the media's fascination with this story, it is unlikely to prove to be a significant issue.
"He was asked. He answered truthfully. Fair dues to him," said one TD.
Rabbitte's week from hell continued on Thursday afternoon as Labour's National Executive (NEC) met in Dublin to have the final say on the party's attitude to the election. During a three-hour meeting, the NEC calmly, and without rancour, debated, deciding by the tightest of margins - 13 to 12 - to stay out of the race.
Subsequently, however, divisions emerged when trade union delegate Frank Brady pushed for an agreed position on Labour's future attitude towards Ryan. Rabbitte was incandescent. Such a decision was tactical and for him alone, he said.
"He completely lost it, saying that this would be a challenge to his leadership," said one witness.
In many ways, the incident had nothing to do with Ryan; rather, it exposed Rabbitte's increasingly poor relationship with some NEC members.
"Ruairí Quinn spent a lot of time buttering these fellows up. Rabbitte doesn't. Some are beginning to oppose him, and the number is growing - if slowly," said one Labour source.
Besides needing National Council approval today, Ryan must still get 20 Oireachtas signatures, which could yet be a close-run thing. If these are secured, Ryan must then lead a five-week campaign against Mary McAleese, described by all as a short-odds favourite to return to the Phoenix Park.
The Labour Party, meanwhile, is in a quandary. If it decides to help Ryan, it could be giving valuable oxygen to a competing political party.
"If we give him signatures, that is a lot. You have to give credit for the fact that a lot of generosity has been shown this week. This is not normal activity," one senior Labour TD said.
If the Ryan campaign begins and then implodes, the Greens could suffer so much damage that the party will be of little use in the post-general election coalition arithmetic.
Under the optimistic assessment within Labour, Ryan would do well, but not win, improving relations between the Greens and Labour along the way. More importantly, his candidacy could re-balance the relationship within a putative rainbow coalition, given Fine Gael's increased confidence. Since the local and European elections, Fine Gael has begun, ever so slightly, to strut, irritating senior Labour figures, who have observed the habit before. However, Labour does not yet know if Ryan is a Mary Robinson in the making, or an Adi Roche, whose campaign collapsed within days in 1997.
The campaign would be the Green Party's biggest challenge yet. Properly run, such a campaign offers the Greens the best opportunity to get through to an inattentive electorate - better than years of honest toil on local councils. In addition, Ryan does not have to be all things to all men and women.
"His potential electorate isn't going to give a toss about a guy once smoking a reefer," said one Labour TD.
However, a campaign would run the risk of exposing existing tensions and creating new ones amongst senior Green figures. If Ryan performed well, he would become the Green Party's best-known individual, over-shadowing Sargent and Gormley, who have laboured in the political vineyard for far longer. Rows in political parties have started over less.
Though money would be a problem, it is not insurmountable as candidates getting more than a quarter of the quota will get €260,000 back from the State.
A bigger problem is the doubt about the Green Party's ability to run a tight, well-ordered and, if necessary, ruthless campaign. Too often, its efforts fall amateurishly short, displaying a reluctance to go for the jugular and an innocent, if charmingly unrealistic, view of human nature.
In June's local and European elections, the Greens decided to use their election posters to offer messages about genetically modified organisms and other environmental issues. In the end the party did poorly, losing both of its European Parliament seats.
"We should have put up candidates' pictures, not bloody tomatoes," said one Green candidate.
The campaign was led by Eamon Ryan.