THE Irish Commission for Justice and Peace, which advises the Catholic Hierarchy on justice issues, has estimated that the increase in the numbers being sent to jail through tighter bail laws and the rising crime rate will lead toga shortfall of more than 1,000 prison places.
In its second statement of the referendum campaign, the ICJP said that if the increased need for prison places exceeds the projected future provision of such places, then forced premature release of convicted prisoners will continue
The Commission cited the Department of Justice's own figures to reach its estimate of the projected shortfall in prison places. It pointed out that the Department of Justice's 1994 document, The Management at Offenders: A Five Year Plan, estimated that 825 extra places would be required to eliminate existing overcrowding and the practice of premature release.
Also in 1994 the Minister for Justice said it had been estimated than an additional 600 people would be likely to be remanded in custody if revised bail laws were stringently applied.
In the 1994 document the Department stated that committals to prison had increased by 80 per cent from 1980 to 1994. "A prorata increase from 1995-1998 (20 per cent) would require another 450 places," said the ICJP. These three estimates together amount to 1,875 extra prison places needed, the ICJP went on. "From this we subtract the figure of 800 new places promised by the Government. This leaves a shortfall of 1,075 places, on the basis of the sources used."
The Commission also noted the numbers of"escapers at large", estimated by Mrs Owen herself at more than 1,300 in reply to a Dail question last week. "If all escapers were recaptured at one go, the inmates of our three largest prisons would have to be cleared out to make room for them."
"There is no justification for the amendment apart from its alleged effect in leading to a net reduction in crime," the Commission went on. "It is impossible to see how this could happen even if the prison accommodation shortfall was only half as great as estimated above."
It continued: "Since 70-80 per cent of crime is now believed to be drug-related, and 19 out of 20 crimes are committed by people other than bail offenders anyway, directing scarce resources in a more balanced way towards abuse prevention and treatment, including rehabilitation, is simply common sense.
The Commission also cited cost figures published by the Department of Justice in 1994 which showed that the capital cost of providing every 100 extra prison places was £11 million, with recurring annual operating costs of £3.7 million.
"While the anxieties of those who feel imprisoned in their homes through fear of crime can in no way be ignored or minimised, the thrust of the above figures is to show why the proposed changes in bail laws can hardly improve their situation. Victims have a right to know the full picture about the real accommodation needs of the prison system," the Commission concluded.