Has the entire economy been criminalised?

The USE, by some experts, of the frightening term "criminalisation of the entire economy" has startled the Russian establishment…

The USE, by some experts, of the frightening term "criminalisation of the entire economy" has startled the Russian establishment into action. Minister after minister has commented on the "negative publicity" the country has received.

A new financial involvement of one of the country's largest banks in the Itar-TASS news agency has been motivated by the need to counteract the now universal image of the new Russia as being, particularly in the business area, dominated by criminal elements. It is difficult, for a number of reasons, to see this approach being successful.

Firstly, Itar-TASS's credibility is limited. In the Soviet era it was simply the mouthpiece of the communist government. In the course of Mr Yeltsin's reign it has gained a slightly, but only very slightly, better reputation for objectivity. Reports of startling Russia "victories" in the war against Chechen separatists did not help.

A publicity offensive, rather than a crackdown on crime, seems a fairly predictable reaction. Soviet attitudes do, after all, prevail among the members of the new Russian capitalist elite, most of whom were once members of its old Russian communist counterpart.

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There is little doubt that corruption is rampant. A recent survey carried out for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development by the British-based Economist Intelligence Unit and the American DRI/McGraw Hill Global Risk Service has identified the former Soviet Union as having become the most corrupt business environment on earth. More than 65 per cent of respondents referred to the need for informal payments to public officials. A book published by a former confidant of Mr Yeltsin, retired KGB general Alexander Korzhakov, did not help the image by showing photographs of Mr Yeltsin and his entourage in less-than-flattering light.

A photograph of the justice minister, Mr Kovalyov, published this time in a weekly newspaper, showing him naked with a group of prostitutes in a night club frequented by the Russian mafia didn't help either. Mr Kovalyov was fired and replaced by Mr Sergei Stepashin, a noted hawk in the Chechen war.

Mafia influence even reached into the sporting arena in 1997 with the murder of Ms Larisa Nechayeva, the financial controller of the country's most successful football club, Spartak Moscow.

On the other hand, the amount of casual street crime has diminished, to the extent that visitors to Russia's main cities now have more to fear from corrupt cops than from hustlers on the hoof.

On the political front, Mr Yeltsin's style of leadership has contributed to the country's unpredictability. Insiders talk of a clear division in the Kremlin between those the President trusts and those he doesn't. Very often people find themselves on one side or other of the dividing line without any logical explanation.

Mr Yeltsin is at least, however, back in charge in the Kremlin. When 1997 began, his health had deteriorated to the extent that there were worries that he might not have recovered from his quintuple heart bypass operation. He was in hospital with pneumonia in January but appeared healthy during his summit with President Clinton in March.

Most of the world's media had left Helsinki by the time Mr Yeltsin held his second summit of the week with Finland's president, Martti Ahtisaari. At that meeting, just a day after a vigorous joint press conference with Mr Clinton, the Russian president appeared exhausted, walked stiffly and spoke strangely of Russia's intended membership of the European Union.

Since then he has appeared to be more healthy and in more predictable form. His announcement of major unilateral reductions in his country's military might in the course of a state visit to Sweden in December raised a few eyebrows. One Kremlin insider even dared to speak of the president being "a little tired".

Apart from the doubts about Mr Yeltsin's health and the obvious corruption which pervades society, 1997 was a good year for Russia's economy, if not necessarily for its people. Zero economic growth has been predicted for 1997, which contrasts with dramatic falls in production over previous years. This, combined with further falls in inflation, could indicate a turning point in the economy.

More importantly for the average Russian, the disastrous and ill-considered war in Chechnya has ended, with the last Russian troops leaving the region in January and the election of rebel military leader Aslan Maskhadov as the Chechen president in the same month.

Peace in Chechnya is absolutely vital for Russia at a time when Caspian oil has finally begun to flow in large quantities and with western assistance. Stability in the oil-rich region, predicted to have resources as large if not larger than those of the Persian Gulf, is essential for further development.

The bitterness of the war, however, has installed an element of Islamic fundamentalism in the region which had not previously been seen. Public executions under Shariah law have taken place and women have been instructed to wear the veil.

Two major anniversaries, the 850th of the founding of Moscow and the 80th of the Bolshevik Revolution, brought Muscovites onto the streets to celebrate and to demonstrate. The Moscow anniversary is reputed to have cost $100,000 per day in fees to the Weather Moderation Unit to seed the clouds and keep it from raining.

It worked right up to the climax of the celebrations, when a laser image of the Virgin Mary of Vladimir was to have been projected into the night sky. Then the rains came, the projection of the Virgin had to be cancelled, ballet dancers slipped and fell on a wet open air stage and Moscow's mayor, Yuri Luzhkov, could barely conceal his fury. Mr Luzhkov has designs on the presidency after Mr Yeltsin retires.

As 1997 draws to an end, Mr Yeltsin's close associate and chief economic reformer, Anatoly Chubais, has had his reputation seriously damaged by a scandal involving payments of up to $100,000 for contributions to a book on Russian privatisation. No book has been published and Mr Chubais's contribution has not been completed. The payment came from a bank associated with Vladimir Potanin, a former Chubais associate who won the right to a chunk of Russia's state telecommunications company.

At the other end of the scale, $2.1 billion is owed in unpaid wages to industrial workers. Mr Chubais has cast doubts on whether Mr Yeltsin's promise to pay will be fulfilled.