The Kerry South constituency seems certain to see a battle for the third seat, with Independent Jackie Healy-Rae likely to have to fight off challenges from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
Healy-Rae is a veteran campaigner, honing his skills as a Fianna Fáil county councillor and activist until he parted company with the party in 1997 when he failed to get a general election nomination. He subsequently won a seat as an Independent and narrowly held it in 2002.
Undoubtedly this is his last election and he is leaving nothing to chance, following his close escape last time. As wily and crafty a politician as can be found in Leinster House, he can never be underestimated.
The likelihood is that he will hold on to his seat as Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael come snapping at his heels.
The first two seats are likely to go to poll-topper Minister for Arts, Sport and Tourism John O'Donoghue and Labour's Breeda Moynihan-Cronin.
O'Donoghue has delivered handsomely for his constituency with funding, although he has come under pressure over the provision of jobs. However, overall, Kerry South has gained in the way its neighbouring constituency, Kerry North, did in its glory days when Dick Spring held office. O'Donoghue could well be elected on the first count.
Moynihan-Cronin caused a huge sigh of relief in Labour circles when she reversed her decision to retire from politics. Having overcome an illness, she re-entered the fray with renewed enthusiasm and is expected to take the second seat. Her vote will be boosted by the electoral advantage of her Killarney town base.
Last time Moynihan-Cronin polled 5,307 first preferences, behind O'Donoghue with 9,445 and Healy-Rae with 6,229. That was a marginal increase on 1997 and she went on to secure the second seat.
Moynihan-Cronin has, arguably, a higher profile this time as a senior figure within the party destined for ministerial office if Labour gains power. She has also been prominent locally over the emotive issue of the provision of BreastCheck facilities.
Kilgarvan-based Healy-Rae has a formidable local operation. His two sons Danny and Michael are county councillors and their father's eyes and ears in Kerry South, not that Healy-Rae is one to turn his gaze away from constituency matters. Last time his first preference vote was down by almost 1,000 votes and he trailed Fianna Fáil councillor Tom Fleming, from Scartaglen, who polled 6,995 first preferences.
However, Healy-Rae did well on transfers and he finally held off Fleming's challenge by just 203 votes. The Healy-Rae machine is leaving nothing to chance this time.
Fleming is a popular councillor. He should be in the race again in Fianna Fáil's bid to secure the two seats it had before Healy-Rae's departure from its ranks.
This leaves the Fine Gael challenge, which is not to be under-estimated at a time when the party is restoring its fortunes. The constituency always had a Fine Gael seat when Michael Begley was a parliamentary secretary (minister of state) in the Liam Cosgrave-led FG-Labour coalition of the 1970s.
However, bitter local divisions have hampered the party's chances of winning back its seat in recent elections. This time Fine Gael is running two candidates, Seamus Fitzgerald, from Dingle, and Rathmore-based Tom Sheahan. It is a good geographical spread and Fine Gael should be within striking distance of a seat if the party continues to do well. Fitzgerald has the advantage of being the local candidate. A similar advantage helped Begley in the past. Sheahan has considerable family contacts in the constituency, which should boost his vote. If the local view that Sheahan is the stronger of the two candidates is true, then the extent of the transfers he will receive from Fitzgerald will be critical. Should Healy-Rae keep his formidable opponents at bay, events could well see him hold his seat with the aid of Fleming's transfers.
Health issues have surfaced, with demands for an accident and emergency service unit in Killarney, particularly during the busy summer period. The proposed new hospital for Dingle as well as the extension to Kenmare Community Hospital have surfaced. Voters have expressed concern about the condition of some roads, while others have voiced their annoyance at the level of anti-social behaviour in towns and villages. The condition of school buildings is of concern to parents and teachers. The business sector sees the constituency getting its fair share of the National Development Plan proposals as an issue.
VERDICT - FF -1; Lab - 1; Ind - 1
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