Here comes the summer, but just for one day, warns Met Eireann

Today is expected to have the best weather of the summer so far, with sunshine in most of the State, temperatures rising close…

Today is expected to have the best weather of the summer so far, with sunshine in most of the State, temperatures rising close to summer levels and disbelieving citizens getting sunburnt.

However, it will be over by tomorrow, with the dull unsettled weather we have all come to know reasserting itself for at least a week.

After the wettest June on record Ireland had the cloudiest July for up to 20 years. Apart from today's expected respite and the good weather in the southern half of the State over the past two days, August is not looking too promising.

It is all down to the Jet Stream, according to Ms Evelyn Cusack of Met Eireann, and in particular its refusal to leave the skies above Ireland for any period of time.

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The Jet Stream is a channel of high-altitude winds - at 20,000 to 30,000 feet - that crosses the Atlantic from west to east. It is the reason it takes less time to fly from the US to Ireland than the reverse. Planes fly in the centre of it travelling to Ireland, saving time and fuel.

In the other direction planes fly above or below the centre of the Jet Stream, minimising the slowdown effect.

Unfortunately, as well as bringing planes quickly from the US, it brings weather systems from Newfoundland. These speed across the Atlantic on the Jet Stream which is positioned at 50 to 60 north, precisely the position of Ireland.

Usually during the summer, however, the Jet Stream takes a holiday, moving northwards and taking the unwelcome Newfoundland weather systems with it up to Iceland.

Simultaneously, an area of high pressure that generally hangs around the Azores, the Azores High, moves northwards for a week or two bringing a period of settled, sunny weather.

In June and July, however, the Jet Stream stayed with us while the Azores High stayed, well, at the Azores, bringing good weather to the Spanish and Portuguese. As a result a constant procession of north Atlantic weather systems rolled in unchallenged across Ireland, bringing rain, cloud and coolness.

But as soon as August began, the Azores High stirred itself, getting closer to the south coast as the Jet Stream moved slightly north of Ireland. These two weather providers are now doing battle in the skies above Ireland, vying for dominance.

Yesterday the Jet Stream was still dominating the weather north of a line from Dublin to Galway, bringing cloudy weather.

However, the Azores High was dominating south of that line, bringing good sunny periods to Wexford, Waterford, Kilkenny and Cork and the south in general.

Today the Azores High is due to score a one-day nationwide victory. According to Ms Cusack of Met Eireann today should be the finest day of the summer so far, with sunshine almost everywhere and temperatures approaching levels they ought to approach during the summer.

If you look up from this newspaper and out the window, you should see a blue sky, according to Met Eireann.

But this is just for one day. Tomorrow our hero from the Azores is due to be pushed down again as the evil Jet Stream resumes its dominance. A week of unsettled, poor weather is forecast for next week, says Ms Cusack. This time El Nino is innocent.

The warmth and humidity of recent days, even in the cloudy areas, is due to the arrival of tropical air. So not only did the last few days not give us much sunshine, the humidity also significantly increased the risk of potato blight.

It never rains but it pours, as they might say at Met Eireann.

The seeing-off of the Azores High is not the end of all hope. After the next week of dull unsettled weather a final charge from the south is still possible.

It could happen in late August, or September, or not at all. It happened last January, for example, which was no great help to anyone, bringing the frost that results from clear skies.

The last time June and July were as wet and as dull was in 1986. That year provides a precedent for those who believe the weather must improve some time before the end of the summer. In 1986 it didn't. But we did get Hurricane Charlie.