Two days before the announcement of the appointments of Mr David Byrne and Mr Michael McDowell, many of the Taoiseach's ministers were still calling it wrong. One finished a conversation with him last weekend confirmed in his firm belief that Maire Geoghegan-Quinn was on her way to Brussels.
In fact, Mr Ahern had decided on his preferred option three weeks earlier. It was around June 14th that the Tanaiste suggested to Mr Ahern that he appoint Mr Byrne to the Commissionership and Mr McDowell to replace him as Attorney General.
Within days, Mr Ahern had firmly decided that Mr Byrne was his preference for Europe. Mr Byrne was told. He, Mr Ahern and Ms Harney stayed quiet for three weeks as the ground was prepared.
Over the following fortnight, Mr Ahern met each of his Cabinet members individually. A couple were enthusiastic about Mrs Geoghegan-Quinn. However Mr Ahern is understood to have been surprised to find that a number of ministers argued strongly in favour of appointing a minister, despite the risk of losing a byelection.
The Government was stable due to the support from outside of four Independents, these ministers argued. They would need to lose three seats, not just one, to be under serious threat.
Mr Ahern listened, but gave nothing away.
He also had several conversations with the incoming EU Commission President, Mr Romano Prodi, but did not reveal until late in the process that he favoured Mr Byrne. Instead, last Thursday week, he mentioned Mr Byrne, Mrs Geoghegan-Quinn and Mr Brian Cowen as possible contenders without indicating a clear preference. Mr Prodi agreed that each of these would be acceptable. Last weekend, Mr Ahern told him he favoured Mr Byrne and Mr Prodi said he would accept this nomination.
With less than a week to go to the announcements, Mr Adrian Hardiman - a senior member of the Bar and a friend of both Ms Harney and Mr McDowell - was asked to sound out Mr McDowell to see if he was interested in the AG's job. Ms Harney was keen to confirm her belief that he would jump at the post, but did not want to raise his hopes before it was a done deal. The word came back quickly that he would indeed love the post.
For Ms Harney, it is a sweet deal indeed. The common wisdom had been that an enemy of the party - Mrs Geoghegan-Quinn - would get the attractive EU post. The suggested consolation for the PDs was that early next year, Ms Harney would lose Mr Desmond O'Malley to a plum post at the EU Court of Auditors. The Opposition would be likely to win the by-election, further weakening both the party and the Government. Some consolation.
Ms Harney's relations with Mrs Geoghegan-Quinn were never warm. However, Mrs Geoghegan-Quinn's attack on the Progressive Democrats and Ms Harney, published in this newspaper on May 8th, was extraordinary in its content and tone.
Her column expressed outrage at reports that Ms Harney had told Mr Ahern to put his representations in the Sheedy affair - which he had chosen not to divulge - into the public domain. Ms Harney's action was, according to Mrs Geoghegan-Quinn, an "upending of the democratic hierarchy . . . patently anti-democratic elitism . . . cutting down the credibility of a Taoiseach by giving him moral instruction through a megaphone . . . cutting down the credibility of Government . . . [doing] profound long-term damage to the body politic . . . doing untold longterm damage to the political process".
The PDs, she asserted, were "a tiny, diminishing party". Ms Harney was indulging in "an affirmation of her moral probity". She had a "need to be proven right" and had "the pettish tone all of us have resented at one time or another".
The article deeply annoyed Ms Harney and the PDs, but this did not seem to matter at the time. With Mr O'Malley being tipped for the Court of Auditors job, the Commissionership was seen as being entirely in the gift of Fianna Fail. Whatever Mrs Geoghegan-Quinn said about the PDs did not seem to matter in this context.
However, Mr O'Malley was not in line for the Court of Auditors job at all. Issues such as Mr O'Malley's age (he is 60) and his lack of an accountancy qualification were floated as posible reasons why he would not get the post. However, the real barrier to his selection was Mr Ahern's and Ms Harney's aversion to a by-election which the Government would probably lose.
With the Court of Auditors job therefore not going to the PDs, the party's influence came to bear more strongly on the Commissionership. The strategy to give a substantial boost to the "tiny, diminishing party" was hatched, in the process ending Mrs Geoghegan-Quinn's chances.
The return of Mr McDowell to active politics at such a senior level is a dramatic boost for the PDs and for Mr McDowell personally.
His political career had taken a severe hammering in the 1997 general election when he lost his seat and his relations with the PD leadership deteriorated sharply. He said afterwards he would allow his membership of the party to lapse and would cease involvement in active politics.
Since then, his relations with Ms Harney improved, however, and he was appointed to chair a commission to advise the Government on the appointment of a regulator for the financial sector and to make recommendations on the enforcement of company law.
Mr Ahern was convinced of the merits of appointing Mr McDowell as AG shortly after he decided that Mr Byrne was his preferred choice for the EU job. It would be a concession to the PDs, but was one worth making as it would give them a much greater stake in Government survival, thus stabilising the administration.
The plan still had to be sold. Within Fianna Fail, however, there were mixed feelings about Mr McDowell. His high profile as government critic from outside the 1989-92 FF/PD coalition had caused lasting irritation to Fianna Fail. Work needed to be done to persuade Mr Ahern that Mr McDowell should be given such a prestigious job.
The Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy, argued forcefully within the party that Mr McDowell should be appointed. He argued that this would add greatly to the stability of the Government by boosting the PDs. "He said it would strengthen Mary Harney's hand in Government," says one Government source, "but would tie her in at the same time".
An intense round of contacts took place over last weekend. Mr McCreevy, who was married on Saturday, was centrally involved in liaising between Mr Ahern and the PDs. Mr Ahern spoke to Mr Prodi and made it clear that he wanted Mr Byrne.
Mr Prodi had wanted a woman, but as a former Italian prime minister, he knew all about coalition governments and the need for pragmatism to ensure stability. The idea was sold.