ANALYSIS: The poll may represent a readjustment to the political scene, with Fine Gael having most to contemplate as to its future, writes Ian McShane
Today's poll is the last in the Irish Times/MRBI pre-election series. Interviewing for the survey was conducted on Monday of this week, and its results are directly comparable with those gathered by way of the simulated ballot paper technique on April 29th-30th last (Table A).
In attempting to extrapolate the most likely make-up of the next government on the basis of today's poll, a number of key factors need to be taken into consideration. Firstly, and most obviously, fieldwork was conducted four days before election day, with some dips and surges in support quite possible in-between.
Secondly, even if support levels remained static between Monday and next Friday, it is impossible to calculate the number of seats the larger parties are likely to win purely on the basis of first-preference voting intentions. For example, in 1997 Fianna Fáil won 77 seats on the basis of 39 per cent of the first-preference vote, while the party won just 68 seats with exactly the same share of the first-preference vote during the previous election in 1992.
The analysis of likely transfer patterns as measured over the two most recent opinion polls does, however, allow us to begin to identify which parties, if any, are most likely to benefit from a disproportionate vote-to-seats ratio.
Finally, once the votes have been counted and the seats allocated, it is the politicians, not the electorate, who will ultimately decide upon the structure of the next government. Short of a one-party majority therefore, the precise outcome of the election may not be known until some time after the actual election.
Compared with the poll of two weeks ago, Government satisfaction levels have increased four points to a position whereby six in 10 of the electorate are now satisfied with the manner in which the country is being run.
Overall, Government satisfaction scores are lower in the Dublin and Leinster regions. In line with the Government's rating, satisfaction with Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach has increased (albeit marginally), as has Mary Harney's as Tanaiste by a significant five percentage points.
As an indicator of the breadth of his appeal, it is interesting to note that satisfaction for the Dublin-based Ahern rises to 76 per cent of the electorate in rural areas, and is consistent across all socio-demographic groupings. Satisfaction ratings for Michael Noonan and Trevor Sargent are comparable with those of last month, while Gerry Adams as leader of Sinn Féin rises to 50 per cent of all voters, and Ruairí Quinn returns his highest satisfaction level as Labour leader in 12 months, at 45 per cent.
Over the last two weeks support for Fianna Fáil has remained solid at 45 per cent once the undecideds have been excluded. Fine Gael support has dropped two points; Labour, the Green Party and Progressive Democrats remain unchanged, while Sinn Féin is up one and the Independents up two points.
Dublin remains a key battleground, with Labour now registering at 19 per cent in the capital, and still second only to Fianna Fáil at 40 per cent in that area.
While well within the margin of error, Fine Gael's two-point slippage nationwide will be worrying for the party as it limbers up to fight for the last seat in a number of tight constituencies.
The Independents are performing particularly well in rural areas and outside Dublin in general, reflecting the relative strength of the incumbent Independents, as well as hotly tipped candidates such as Marian Harkin in Sligo-Leitrim.
The PDs will be happy to fight it out in their finely targeted constituencies on their current national showing of 2 per cent, while the Greens will take comfort from the fact that their vote peaks in the Dublin and Leinster regions where so many of their hopes lie. Sinn Féin is registering significant levels of support in Connacht and Ulster (9 per cent), Dublin (8 per cent) and even the rest of Leinster (6 per cent), and they should poll well on Friday.
Almost two-thirds (62 per cent) of those who indicate they will give Fianna Fáil their first-preference vote intend to allocate their second preference to another Fianna Fáil candidate, a ratio which will aid the party in maximising its final number of seats. The corresponding transfer ratio between Fine Gael candidates remains relatively low at 39 per cent. Labour second preferences are transferring to Fianna Fáil at twice the rate they are to Fine Gael, while the combined Sinn Féin-Independent vote is splitting roughly 30 per cent to Fianna Fáil, 20 per cent to Fine Gael and 15 per cent to Labour. All good news for Fianna Fáil.
The electorate is crystal-clear as to which of the two main party leaders, Bertie Ahern or Michael Noonan, it would prefer as Taoiseach in the next government.
In terms of preferred coalition options, it is by now well established that the great majority of those likely to vote for Fianna Fáil would prefer their party to serve in a coalition arrangement (64 per cent) than a majority Government (29 per cent).
Notwithstanding the caveats set out in the introduction to this piece, analysis of today's and indeed all of the more recent Irish Times/MRBI polls point to a number of likely outcomes.
Firstly, Bertie Ahern seems almost certain to emerge as the next Taoiseach. If Fianna Fáil requires support from outside the party to form a government, the most likely arrangement would appear to be Fianna Fáil along with the PDs and/or a number of like-minded independents.
Secondly, Fine Gael appears set to lose seats next Friday. As candidates are likely to be fighting for the last seat in a range of marginal constituencies, the extent of their losses is impossible for anyone to quantify prior to polling day.
On the back of its solid core vote of 10 per cent of all electors, Labour can make modest gains on its current standing of 21 TDs, and should perform particularly well in the broad Dublin region. Given its slow yet consistent rise in the polls over the last two years, Sinn Féin's target of three seats now seems probable, with four or more a distinct possibility.
On the basis that the Green Party and Independents also appear likely to increase their collective number of seats, the long-term outcome of the election may well represent a readjustment of Irish politics, with the right-of-centre ground belonging to the Fianna Fáil-PDs bloc, the left-of-centre ground defaulting to Labour, and an amalgam of Sinn Féin, the Green Party and socialist independents representing the more radical left vote.
Where exactly the post-election Fine Gael might position itself within this scenario would then remain to be seen.
Ian McShane is managing director of the Market Research Bureau of Ireland