How will policy towards US shift in the new EU?

EU: The war in Iraq raised huge issues about the political orientation of the new EU member-states, writes Adrian Langan

EU: The war in Iraq raised huge issues about the political orientation of the new EU member-states, writes Adrian Langan

Since then there has been a continuing debate about where the new members lie in relation to the US/EU divide.

Jacques Chirac famously told the new members that they had missed a good opportunity to "shut up" over the support many of them were giving to the US on the Iraq war - something which hardly endeared him to the citizens of those countries.

The big debate is whether countries such as Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia will continue to be more pro-US and will play a role (with the UK) in balancing the Franco-German so-called "Old Europe" group.

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But what do the people in the new member-states think? And how will that affect the likely future political orientation of those countries?

Among the citizens of the accession states, the European Union as an entity is much more popular than the United States of America.

However, there are indications of a slightly more pro-American leaning in the new states.

Compared to the existing EU member-states, a smaller proportion of people in the new states actively views the US negatively.

In the current 15 member-states, 53 per cent take the view that the US plays a negative role in keeping peace in the world. In the new states, the figure is lower at 46 per cent.

The better ratings for the US in those countries must be understood within the context of the recent history of the former Communist states who are joining.

For years, the subjugation of these states and their people was contested most vigorously by the United States - and old debts are not forgotten so quickly.

That said, the Iraq war might prove to be a watershed in this relationship.

The reluctance of the Poles to replace their troops in Iraq may well signal a change in this relationship, but the ties are still deep.

Many of the new states are literally awash with US think-tanks and economic and business gurus as well as with religious organisations looking for new devotees. Large-scale inward investment from the US will make the governments of the region very reluctant to disagree significantly with Washington, regardless of the feelings of their citizens, which is something we in Ireland understand well.

The majority of people support a common foreign policy among the member-states of the European Union.

Nearly two-thirds (63 per cent) are in support of this while only 17 per cent are opposed. This is similar to the level of support across the existing member-states.

This high level of support has to be considered in the context of the decision of many of the new states to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), and of the general acceptance of their elites, and indeed their general populations, of the idea that these issues can best be tackled with others rather than individually.

Some 76 per cent of people in the new member-states support a common defence policy for the EU, with only 11 per cent opposed. In Ireland, the level of support for such a move is only 34 per cent.

The difference between Ireland and the new member-states in this regard is really striking - from the Irish point of view, this issue has always been defined in terms of our traditional policy of neutrality.

The perspective from the new member-states is quite different.

Anecdotally, it can be illustrated quite clearly by the following story: when an Irish person was proudly outlining Ireland's policy of neutrality and our refusal to enter a military alliance, and expressing some bafflement about Poland's desire to enter NATO, his Polish counterpart calmly responded: "So, tell me again, how long did you say that the Russians occupied your country?"

There will be much debate with our new colleagues before we resolve this one.

Adrian Langan is executive director of Bill O'Herlihy Communications and a long-time pro-EU activist.

Tomorrow: How the media is viewed in the new states.