Unions must begin organising now to prepare for a "free-for-all" in the event of no new national agreement being reached with the Government and employers, according to an internal Irish Congress of Trade Unions document.
It concedes privately that union density outside the public sector is "about 25 per cent" and that low- paid workers in the non-unionised services sector are "the new poor" of Irish society.
Recruiting and organising new members was more important than at any time in ICTU's history, according to the report, which was written by ICTU general secretary Mr Dave Begg for a meeting of Congress's economic forum today. It says further trade-offs of wage moderation for tax cuts are not viable, although it adds: "It is too early yet to speculate about the size of any pay claim".
The report says low corporation taxes have done their job in attracting high levels of foreign investment to create jobs and further "tax reductions in this context are problematic". Instead unions had to take the view that "if we are to attain the status of a mainstream EU country we cannot continue wage subsidies to employers".
The Public Service Benchmaking Body in June would have a major influence on the industrial relations climate. But "whether there is another agreement or not there will still have to be a system for determining wages. If there is no agreement it seems likely that we would revert to the pre-partnership model, which was that a number of major employments would probably establish a trend, or 'norm' which unions would seek to apply nationally."
Underlying the partnership model was a trend for the public sector to be "reduced constantly through competition and regulatory practices which mainly affect utilities. Jobs lost in the public sector are to an extent replicated in the private sector but are generally inferior in quality," it says.
"Occupational pension scheme coverage is quite low at 30 per cent and some employers are now seeking to transfer financial risk to workers by moving from defined benefit to defined contribution schemes, which will inevitably lead to under-provision of pensions."
While there was talk about better quality jobs and overall incomes were rising, "the take- home pay of those towards the bottom of the earnings distribution may fall below the relative income poverty lines. This would result in a condition of increasing inequality in which it would be impossible to have the social solidarity to sustain social partnership."
The document says the ICTU's "mission is to organise workers, especially the most vulnerable people", and it questions the commitment of politicians in all parties to social partnership.