Independent Breen fittest to survive FG 'Darwinian' strategy

Constituency profile: Clare: Having been the county which first elected both Daniel O'Connell and Eamon de Valera, Clare is …

Constituency profile: Clare:Having been the county which first elected both Daniel O'Connell and Eamon de Valera, Clare is a constituency which prides itself on electoral firsts.

Even in recent years, Clare can still surprise, such as with the election of the country's first Muslim TD, Mosajee Bhamjee for Labour, in 1992.

In Election 2007 however, Clare is not expected to produce any great political shock, with the main question being whether Independent TD James Breen can hold on to his seat.

It is a region which has benefited from the economic boom, with a rise in population of more than 7 per cent.

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Ennis, the county town, is thriving, while the eastern parts of the constituency, which act as the commuter towns and suburbs of Limerick, have also expanded significantly.

As a result, Clare has been experiencing many of the problems of rapid expansion linked to inadequate infrastructure, such as traffic congestion and poor water quality.

Some of these problems have been addressed, with the opening of a new bypass for Ennis and an upgrading in the rail link between the town and Limerick.

Ever since the party's foundation, Clare has been a traditional stronghold for Fianna Fáil.

It has not been unusual for the party to poll well over 50 per cent in the polls. Indeed in 1997, Fianna Fáil succeeded in taking three out of the four seats in the constituency.

Fianna Fáil, which currently has two seats in Clare, was hopeful of regaining a third seat in the constituency.

With the retirement from politics of Síle de Valera, the party is running sitting TD and Minister of State for Labour Affairs Tony Killeen, alongside Senators Timmy Dooley and Brendan Daly, a former TD and minister.

Just one week out from polling day however, a third seat for Fianna Fáil now appears to be a remote possibility. The party would have to poll over 50 per cent of the vote, unlikely even in a Fianna Fáil stronghold like Clare.

The party has split the constituency into three, and the competition between the three Fianna Fáil candidates for the two seats is quite intense. However Tony Killeen and Timmy Dooley, one of the younger candidates for Fianna Fáil in this election, are most likely to take seats.

Sitting Fine Gael TD Pat Breen is also considered to have a safe seat.

There will be intense competition for the seat held by Independent TD and former Fianna Fáil activist James Breen, which is being targeted by both Fine Gael and the Green Party.

Clare's Green deputy mayor, Brian Meaney, had been expected to put in a very strong performance, having polled just under 6 per cent of the vote in 2002. But the councillor's campaign has suffered from a nationwide phenomenon which has seen the party's support being squeezed by strong Fine Gael and Labour campaigns.

Although Labour won a seat here in 1992, its candidate, Paschal Fitzgerald, is expected to poll reasonably well but not enough to put him in the running.

Neither Sinn Féin candidate Anna Prior nor PD Murt Collins is considered a serious contender for the final seat.

It is Fine Gael which stands the greatest chance of unseating James Breen.

There is considerable confidence within the party that it can take a second seat in Clare for the first time since 1989. Of the remaining Fine Gael candidates, Joe Carey, son of former TD Donal Carey, is seen as the strongest contender, but he would have to be ahead of James Breen on the first count to have a real chance.

If Fine Gael fails to take a second seat in Clare, it will be down to a somewhat ludicrous decision to run four candidates. This decision arose from a combination of factors, including a promise to Madeleine Taylor Quinn that she would be on the Clare ticket in return for having stood in the 2004 European Parliament elections.

Fine Gael headquarters have been happy to go along with such a strategy in some constituencies, describing it as "Darwinian" politics.

They hope that intense competition between rivals will increase their vote and take extra seats, as it did for the party in the Leinster European Parliament constituency in 2004.

However, Taylor Quinn and the fourth Fine Gael candidate, Tony Mulcahy, do not appear to have enough support to survive into the later counts.

James Breen is also mounting a formidable defence of his seat. Other candidates' campaign teams have observed that a recent local opinion poll, which showed him losing the final seat, has actually galvanised support around the Independent TD.

It will be a close call, but at this stage it is likely that it will take more than Fine Gael's ad-hoc "Darwinian" strategy to unseat James Breen.

OUTGOING TDs

Síle De Valera (FF)

Tony Killeen (FF)

Pat Breen (FG)

James Breen (Independent)

CANDIDATES:

FIANNA FÁIL Brendan Daly, Timmy Dooley, Tony Killeen

FINE GAEL Pat Breen, Joe Carey, Tony Mulcahy, Madeleine Taylor Quinn

LABOUR Paschal Fitzgerald

PDs Murt Collins

GREEN PARTY Brian Meaney

SINN FÉIN Anna Prior

INDEPENDENT James Breen

LOCAL ISSUES:

The future of Ennis hospital has been an ongoing issue in the county town for the past five years, but Fianna Fáil has attempted to neutralise this with an announcement last week of a planning notice for the redevelopment of part of the site.

Water quality in the town, with a partial boil notice still in place, also features on the hustings.

The future of Shannon airport is less of an issue than it once was, even with the removal of the Shannon stopover. This is mainly due to the creation of an independent Shannon Airport Authority.

VERDICT: FF - 2, FG - 1, INDEPENDENT 1. Prediction: No change