Indicators are a deal can be done post-election

"Sufficient for the day is the election thereof," is a very sensible motto that all pro-Belfast Agreement parties in this campaign…

"Sufficient for the day is the election thereof," is a very sensible motto that all pro-Belfast Agreement parties in this campaign are observing. Get the Westminster and local elections out of the way and then concentrate on maintaining the new dispensation.

But some thought is naturally turning to the post-election period when, according to Richard McAuley of Sinn Fein, the main parties will be catapulted "into the mother and father of all negotiations".

The Ulster Unionist leader, Mr David Trimble, has already sharpened political minds with his July 1st resignation deadline if the IRA fails to move on arms. So has the IRA with the latest inspections of weapons.

In practical terms those negotiations should begin on Monday, June 18th. That will allow the Westminster counts to be completed by June 8th or 9th, and the later local election counts to be wound up by Wednesday, June 13th.

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The main leaders will then be thrust into hot-house talks on Monday fortnight, chaired by the British and Irish governments, probably at Hillsborough or Stormont.

So the parties will have just two weeks to forge a deal on arms, policing, demilitarisation and safeguarding the institutions of the Belfast Agreement - that is if an accommodation is to be reached before the resignation deadline. Mr Trimble could face a leadership challenge at an Ulster Unionist Council meeting scheduled during that fortnight of talks, but if he emerges relatively unscathed from the election, that council meeting could be postponed. Equally, if he performs well in the election, he could go ahead with the meeting to get the council off his back.

Negotiations in Northern Ireland tend to overrun, and that may happen again. The resignation could be briefly put into suspended animation if more time is required. But it's difficult to see much leeway because of what happens from early July - Drumcree, the Twelfth, the marching season.

Politicians are striking certain poses, as one would expect ahead of polling day. The DUP and other anti-agreement politicians accuse Mr Trimble of bluffing. He, however, insists he is deadly serious.

Mr Trimble said the real "pressure cooker" period for republicans to move on arms would be the six weeks after July 1st. If that is the case then the implication, based on his deadline, is that his resignation as First Minister is inevitable.

In theory a solution could be achieved by July 1st, obviating the need for a Trimble resignation. As Mr Gerry Adams, Mr Martin McGuinness and Mr Pat Doherty have said, it's all about returning to the IRA statement of May last year.

At its simplest that statement pledges that in the right context the IRA will "verifiably and credibly put its arms beyond use". "In the right context" means dealing with policing and demilitarisation to the satisfaction of republicans.

A complication is that the DUP now says it wants to be at the talks party, but not face-to-face with Sinn Fein. Mr Adams welcomed this as the DUP saying "maybe" instead of "no" to the agreement, But how or whether the DUP can be involved is a dilemma that the British and Irish governments will have to resolve. That may be determined by how well the DUP fares in the election.

There are indicators that a deal can be done. It is not coincidental that the IRA arms inspection happened at the height of the election campaign. The language from Sinn Fein and in the IRA statement is cordial. "We want it to work," said Mr Adams. "The resolution of the issue of arms is a necessary step in a genuine peace process," said the IRA.

Mr Trimble, while deeply suspicious of republicans, has also been careful not to corner himself into any irreversible No position. Moreover, even among anti-agreement unionists the depth of hostility to the Good Friday agreement seems to be diminishing.

One must sound the usual warning that it could all implode during the negotiations and the generous words could be nothing more than electioneering. But, to quote Mr McGuinness this week, one would reasonably expect that "there is enough wisdom around, enough sense around, and enough leadership around on all sides for us in the aftermath of the elections to resolve the outstanding difficulties". It's a matter of good faith and practical politics.

Gerry Moriarty

Gerry Moriarty

Gerry Moriarty is the former Northern editor of The Irish Times