European Diary: When Jose Manuel Barroso makes a last-ditch plea to MEPs today to back his new Commission, he will be battling to save his own job as well as those of his team, writes Denis Staunton
The European Parliament ratified Mr Barroso's nomination as Commission President in July but the EU's three legal services disagree on whether that vote will remain valid if MEPs reject the whole Commission tomorrow.
Regardless of the legal situation, the political reality is that a defeat in Strasbourg tomorrow would make it almost impossible for Mr Barroso to remain in his post.
Parliament's rejection of the Commission would be seen as Mr Barroso's own political failure and would damage his personal authority beyond repair.
Throughout the gathering storm surrounding his Commission appointments, Mr Barroso has reacted too slowly, allowing MEPs' attitudes to harden and making compromise more difficult.
Many MEPs believe that a small gesture from the new Commission President immediately after Mr Rocco Buttiglione's rejection by the Civil Liberties Committee would have taken the sting out of the dispute. Instead, Mr Barroso declared that, despite Mr Buttiglione's extreme views on homosexuality, marriage and immigration, he was perfectly suitable for the post of Justice and Home Affairs Commissioner.
The statement outraged MEPs because it suggested that the opinion of Parliament was of little consequence to Mr Barroso. He made matters worse last week when he appeared to promise major concessions to parliamentary leaders in private meetings, leaving them disappointed with his formal compromise proposal last Thursday.
Mr Barroso's friends were confident last Thursday that he had done enough to persuade a majority of MEPs to back his team. Even if the Socialist leader, Mr Martin Schulz, was urging his members to vote against the Commission, Mr Barroso was confident that pressure from Berlin, London and Madrid would ensure that enough Socialists would support him.
Over the weekend, it became clear that such pressure - insofar as it was exerted at all - was ineffective. For many MEPs at the start of a five-year term, the threat of de-selection seems remote and the temptation to assert themselves against the Commission and national governments is immense.
Although EU leaders chose Mr Barroso, some national capitals remain lukewarm about the former Portuguese prime minister, partly on account of his support for the Iraq war and partly because of his strongly liberal economic outlook. Others were disappointed not to become Commission President themselves - and some see an opportunity to snatch the prize if Mr Barroso falls.
If Mr Barroso does indeed step down, Mr Romano Prodi's Commission would remain in office until a new Commission President and a new Commission is put in place. Leaders such as Belgium's Mr Guy Verhofstadt and Austria's Mr Wolfgang Schüssel could allow their names to be put forward again, although many would be reluctant to return to a contest that proved so humiliating earlier this year.
Even if Mr Barroso secures a majority in the Parliament tomorrow, perhaps on account of Socialist and Liberal abstentions, he will begin his mandate with diminished authority.
Many in Brussels are ready to forgive Mr Barroso for failing to anticipate the trouble Mr Buttiglione would cause but there is less understanding for his stubbornness in leaving Ms Neelie Kroes with the Competition portfolio. Ms Kroes will be unable to participate in decisions concerning dozens of companies, including some of Europe's biggest, with which she has had business relationships.
Mr Barroso is developing an unhappy reputation for arrogance and inflexibility, combined with a lack of political foresight.
In seeking to favour the interests of national governments over the European Parliament, he runs the risk of losing the confidence of both.