Interest rates are expected to rise after US move

The US central bank has raised interest rates for the first time in four years, signalling an end to a prolonged period of historically…

The US central bank has raised interest rates for the first time in four years, signalling an end to a prolonged period of historically low global rates and cheap finance, write John McManus and Barry O'Halloran.

The Federal Reserve increased its base rate by a quarter of a percentage point yesterday, saying an increase was justified given the quickening pace of the US economic recovery.

In a statement the Federal Reserve said there were growing signs of inflation in the US economy, although some of this was due to what it described as "transitory factors".

US rates had been left at 1 per cent - their lowest level since 1958 - for over a year as the nascent US recovery spluttered.

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Interest rates in Europe are now expected to rise as the global interest rate cycle turns. The European Central Bank governing council meets in Frankfurt today but no increase in European rates is expected until after the summer at the earliest.

European rates are predicted to rise by 1.5 percentage points from their current level of 2 per cent over the next 18 months to two years.

"The European Central Bank will eventually do likewise, but it is under no immediate pressure because European growth is still pretty modest, inflation is subdued and European unemployment is quite high," said Mr Jim Power, economist with Friends First.

"Irish borrowers need to be aware that probably over the next 18 to 24 months, European rates are likely to rise by up to 1.5 per cent," he said. "They need to factor that in now."

Dr Dan McLaughlin of Bank of Ireland said he doubted if there would be a rate rise on this side of the Atlantic before the end of the year. "I would think it reasonable that we will see interest rates rise by 1.5 per cent over the next 18 months," he added.

Further US rate rises are expected over the coming 18 months, with at least one more quarter of a percentage point rise pencilled in ahead of November's presidential election.

US rates could rise by as much as 3.5 percentage points by the end of next year, bringing them to 4.5 per cent, according to Mr Colin Hunt, economist with Goodbody Stockbrokers. The Federal Reserve indicated that future increases would be measured.

"The Fed has moved to reassure markets that it is not going to do anything to disturb the recovery. The speed at which it moves will depend on the pace of the recovery," he said.

In a statement yesterday the Federal Reserve said: "With underlying inflation still expected to be relatively low, the committee believes that policy accommodation can be moved at a pace that is likely to be measured.

"Nonetheless, the committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfil its obligation to maintain price stability."

The wording of the statement leaves room for the Federal Reserve to move more aggressively if needed. US inflation is predicted to decline in the second half of the year and the bank is expected to hike rates if this does not turn out to be the case.

Yesterday's increase had been expected by the markets, and reaction on Wall Street was muted, with US stocks rising. The dollar fell against the euro to $1.2190 in the immediate wake of the announcement.

The Federal Reserve cut US rates 13 times between May 2000 and June 2003 as the US economy experienced its most prolonged recession since the 1930s.

The economy is now growing strongly, with more than 1.2 million jobs created since the start of the year.