With travel demand in greater Dublin increasing by 7 per cent per annum, the challenge now facing the region's transport planners is to increase the capacity of its public transport network by an equivalent percentage, year by year. Otherwise, traffic congestion will only get worse.
Since travel demand is linked with economic growth, and as the first phase of Luas is still three years away, the only short-term solution to the traffic problem involves providing more buses and trains, and getting more people to cycle or walk to work. "There is no other way", says Mr John Henry, director of the Dublin Transportation Office.
This now seems to be accepted by the Government, too. After years of putting CIE on a famine diet of capital investment, ministers have finally agreed to put serious money into public transport for the first time since the DART service between Howth and Bray was introduced 15 years ago. And it is already producing results.
Ten extra DART carriages are being delivered between now and next spring; a further 16 are due by the end of next year. They will increase DART's capacity by over 25 per cent, helping to relieve unpleasant peak-period overcrowding on a system which has seen a huge increase in passenger numbers since it started running in 1984.
DART extensions to Malahide and Greystones are almost ready to open; the precise date for introducing a limited service depends on the outcome of talks with train drivers, but Iarnrod Eireann says there will be a full service to both towns by next June. Some 47 Arrow-style railcars are also being added to the other suburban lines. Work is under way on the installation of a double-track between Clonsilla and Maynooth, on the Dublin-Sligo line.
But the most important development has been the commissioning of consultant engineers Ove Arup to prepare a "strategic blueprint" for the development of rail services in Dublin over the next 20 years.
This review, due to be completed by the end of the year, is examining all suburban rail options, including a rail link to Dublin Airport, reopening the line serving Navan and providing extra tracks on Kildare line.
The consultants are also dealing with the thorny issue of a new cross-river rail link between Spencer Dock and Barrow Street.
Meanwhile, Dublin Bus is taking delivery of 195 new double-decker buses, at the rate of five per week, and these will boost its peak-period capacity by almost 10,000. Low-floored, wheelchair-accessible double-deckers are being tested and tenders have been invited for 15 articulated single-deck buses, with something of the ambience of a modern tram.
The last Budget also contained some positive measures, such as allowing employers to give their staff free public transport travel passes, exempt from benefit-in-kind tax.
That in itself should encourage more people to use buses and trains, though there are still doubts about whether sufficient capacity exists to meet the latent demand.