Iraq: The attrition rate for US combat troops in Iraq has reached 9.5 per cent, writes Tom Clonan. This is above that of the war in Vietnam
Mr Donald Rumsfeld's surprise visit to Iraq over the weekend, along with reassuring statements about a temporary reduction in hostilities, will provide little comfort to US troops stationed there.
US commanders in Iraq expect the campaign of resistance to intensify again, with an increase in casualties by Christmas.
The situation is already grim. Official figures from the Pentagon state that 444 US troops have been killed, with 2,504 wounded to date. These figures are very high when taken as a proportion of the total number of US troops involved in the conflict.
At present, the US has approximately 150,000 troops in Iraq. In what is known in military parlance as the "tooth to tail ratio", one in five of these soldiers are combat troops. The remainder consist of logistics, support, engineering and headquarters staffs.
Therefore, the task of patrolling the environs of Baghdad and the Sunni triangle falls on the shoulders of 30,000 US troops.
For these soldiers the odds of getting killed or injured are quite high. Based on the figures, the fatality rate represents around 1.5 per cent of the number of combat troops. The numbers wounded thus far represent 8 per cent of US combat strength in Iraq. When deaths and injuries are added, the attrition rate reaches 9.5 per cent of the number of combat troops in theatre.
This casualty rate is more than 10 times that experienced by the US in the Gulf War of 1991. In that conflict, 147 troops were killed in action, with 467 injured. A further 382 US troops were killed in non-combat related incidents. When these figures are combined, they represent 0.7 per cent of the 133,000 combat troops involved in that conflict.
A closer comparison would be with US losses in Vietnam. In that conflict, over 58,000 US troops lost their lives, with over 150,000 injured. The total of approximately 200,000 killed and injured in Vietnam represents 9 per cent of the total number of combat troops that served there.
For the US soldier on the ground, Iraq has become a latter-day Vietnam.
These calculations are conservative and do not take into account the combat stress casualties being sustained by the US in Iraq.
Experience in previous conflicts suggest that stress-related casualties normally peak at between 30 per cent and 50 per cent of the total of dead and injured. Based on this calculation, it is likely that up to 1,000 US troops will have succumbed to chronic combat stress reaction (CSR).
The US military has pioneered much of the research into CSR, and recognises it not as an aberrant or deviant condition but a natural and inevitable reaction to the stress and trauma of combat.
The physical symptoms of the condition include increased heart and respiratory rates, muscle tremor, diarrhoea and increased urinary frequency. The behavioural symptoms include aggressive hyper-vigilance and hyper-arousal. The exaggerated startle response associated with these symptoms has been shown to contribute to accidental discharges of weapons, self-harm and the indiscriminate use of force.
Ironically, the main risk factors for CSR are extended duration in the field with no fixed rotation date, witnessing the wounding of comrades, experiencing surprise attack or ambush and uncertainty as to the efficiency of the mission or role. Other critical risk factors identified include lack of home support for the mission and an unpredictable exit strategy.
This unfortunate combination of risk factors describes eloquently the crisis facing US troops on the ground in Iraq.
With the ongoing passage of time, the physical and psychological pressures on the under-resourced and under-strength US occupation force will increase incrementally. As each day passes, the relatively small US military force in Iraq will experience a casualty rate that will outstrip that sustained in Vietnam, Korea or the second World War.
With Mr Rumsfeld's departure from Iraq and the approach of Christmas, many US troops will feel abandoned by the Bush administration to a hopeless task and for many an unenviable fate.
Dr Tom Clonan is a retired army officer who lectures in the School of Media, DIT.