Kieran Mulvey, one of the country's most experienced industrial relations trouble-shooters, gave the first sign two years ago that the economic gloom was lifting, and warned that expectation would come with recovery.
The largest number of workers in the country – the public service – did not get a pay increase in 2015, but they did spend most of the year negotiating, debating and voting on a deal that comes into place in January. Under the Lansdowne Road accord – which replaces Haddington Road – most of the 300,000 public service staff will receive a €2,000 rise in earnings between January 2016 and September 2017.
Cuts made over recent years to the pensions of 80 per cent of retired public service staff will be restored over a 24-month period up to a value of just over €34,000.
However, the legislation contains a powerful sting in the tail for groups such as teachers and gardaí who have voted to reject the new agreement. Under it, trade unions and organisations considered to have repudiated a collective agreement would lose out on incremental increases until 2018, costing up to €2,000 in some cases.
Teachers could also lose out on €1,600 in supervision and substitution payments which are due to be introduced in two phases from next September if they remain outside of the new agreement.
For now, the Government has adopted a wait-and-see approach to the rejection of the Lansdowne Road accord by the TUI, ASTI, the GRA and AGSI, but that could change after the election. If it emerges that additional work hours set down under previous agreements are not being implemented, a new government could be forced to confront gardaí and teachers.
Pay increases
In the private sector, Ibec forecasted that 67 per cent of firms would award pay increases this year, though Siptu has quietly won 2-3 per cent deals for some members over the past two years. So, too, has Mandate and the TEEU.
Meanwhile, the new Low Pay Commission recommended that the national minimum wage should rise from €8.65 to €9.15 from January – 122,000 people will benefit. A single person on the minimum wage working 39 hours per week would be better off by €708 per year as a result of the increase, says Labour minister Ged Nash.
However, the rise in expectations has not, so far, resulted in more strikes: the ones that did take place were largely concentrated in a small number of large employers and did not primarily relate to pay.
Just 8,700 days were lost to industrial action in the second quarter of the year, down from 24,000 in the first quarter, though the latter number is explained by the Junior Certificate exam row.