How many Ulster Unionists does it take to change a light bulb?
None, the Ulster Unionist Party can't change anything.
That was Peter Robinson from his DUP annual conference valedictory in the La Mon Hotel in Belfast on Saturday. You can take the man out of politics but you can't take the politics out of the man.
This conference was both a Robinson tribute gig and an implicit dual coronation.
Rather like St Paul, Robinson said his race was nearly run, while he also availed of his speech to thank God, his staff, his party and his supporters.
He also thanked his family and his wife Iris. “I trust the Lord will give me strength and time to make up for the price they each have had to pay.”
He paid particular thanks to Nigel Dodds and Arlene Foster, the duo respectively expected to fill his roles of leader and First Minister.
Stage-managed
It was an obsessively stage-managed conference. There were short opening and closing addresses, a couple of panel discussions, a closed session, a report about young DUPers, but just three speeches: from Nigel Dodds, from Arlene Foster and from Peter Robinson. Nothing from the conference floor, no knockabout from
Sammy Wilson
.
The DUP faithful would want to be pretty dense not to know what’s coming next – and they’re not so dim.
Dodds and Foster had the good manners not to officially declare that they would be replying to the job-share advertisement in the DUP Gazette, but there wasn't a person among the 600 politicians and delegates present who didn't realise what the small print said: if you're not named Dodds or Foster, don't apply.
Life in the DUP will be different under the new leadership. Dodds will appeal to the harder, more fundamentalist wing of the party; Foster, a member of the Church of Ireland, which some born-again Protestants think is almost Catholic, will gain favour with the softer wing.
Subterranean conflicts
Moreover, while there are subterranean conflicts in the DUP, strenuous efforts will be made to ensure they don’t bubble to the surface as the leadership is decided in late December or early January.
Even Ian Paisley jnr, the man seen as most likely to throw a discommoding shape or two, felt it politic to pay tribute "to the hard work of Peter – building on the legacy of my father".
Dodds can be acerbic at times and Foster is no shrinking violet, but neither will have the same menace, bite and presence as Robinson. The DUP won’t fear Dodds and Foster as they feared Peter.
Elections
Robinson, even at his last conference, as evident in that UUP light bulb joke, didn’t forget that there are Assembly elections coming in May and that one of the biggest battles to be won is the intra-unionist contest.
How UUP leader Mike Nesbitt outflanked him and his party by withdrawing his Minister Danny Kennedy from the Executive after the murder of Kevin McGuigan still rankles. As well as the joke, Robinson went on the attack against the UUP, defending last week's "Fresh Start" deal and slating those who would carp and criticise.
His central message was that in leaving politics he had safeguarded the union, strengthened his party and saved devolution.
Dodds and Foster, while preparing the party for those Assembly elections, should note that Robinson still intends to offer his counsel from time to time.
He said that “whoever the party chooses”, they would have his wholehearted and unqualified support.
“I will offer them advice in private and nothing other than support in public,” he said. In other words while he might be resigning, he is not going away.
In the months ahead Dodds and Foster must demonstrate mettle and personality in order to creep from under the Robinson shadow and put their own stamp on the DUP.
