The EU Commission said today that the Irish referendum on Nice was the only obstacle left in the process of enlargement.
Commission officials and diplomats warned EU enlargement could be delayed only if the Irish say No to the Nice treaty.
"I believe that Ireland's referendum is the only serious obstacle to concluding accession talks with chosen candidates at the Copenhagen summit in December," said Mr Eneko Landaburu, head of the Commission's Enlargement Directorate.
The candidate countries hope that despite numerous denials the Commission has a "Plan B" to save enlargement from collapse if Ireland rejects the treaty.
This would probably involve incorporating key elements of Nice into the accession treaty, which would still have to be ratified by the parliaments of the 15 member states and the candidate countries concerned.
The EU Commission today launched a broad debate on the bloc's eastern expansion before recommending next week which candidates are fit to complete entry talks this year.
The Commission's annual progress reports, due on October 9th, are expected to declare 10 out of 13 candidates generally ready to complete negotiations in December and to join in 2004.
They are the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Cyprus and Malta -- countries named at the EU's summit in Laeken last year as possible candidates for admission in 2004.
"The Laeken scenario remains realistic," spokesman Ms Jean-Christophe Filori told reporters after the Commission's meeting, adding that "today's meeting was only preliminary and a final decision will be taken next week". Bulgaria and Romania are not expected to join the EU before 2007 while Turkey has yet to start accession talks because of continued concerns over its human rights record.
The Commission's meeting was organised partly to let its 20 members voice any doubts before the final approval of the enlargement report, diplomats said.