At 4 a.m. yesterday, three exhausted Irish officials finally ended their meetings with Sinn Fein representatives in Belfast. They knew then that despite a fortnight of the most intensive period of negotiations any of them ever participated in, they were coming back to Dublin with out what they needed to save the new Northern Assembly and Executive.
They were told by the Sinn Fein representatives, including Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness, there were new words on offer from the IRA, words that would state more strongly than ever the IRA's commitment to permanent peace and its acknowledgement that decommissioning would have to be dealt with.
However, the words would only be uttered by the IRA to the head of the decommissioning body, Gen John de Chastelain, if the IRA knew in advance they would be accepted. The officials knew they were not enough. Mr Adams said last night that they explained the "context in which it [the IRA] will deal with the issue of arms".
This would not answer the two-part question put most simply by Mr Seamus Mallon: will they decommission, and if so, when?
For close to two weeks, these three officials led the efforts to find a formula that would save both the North's nine-week old political institutions and Mr David Trimble's leadership of the Ulster Unionist Party. In the absence of IRA decommissioning, or at least a clear commitment and timetable for it, it was always clear that either the institutions, or Mr Trimble, would have to go.
However, imaginative thinking, great political skill and extraordinary hard work kept the hope alive for close to two weeks after many expected it to die. Last Tuesday week, February 1st, Mr Peter Mandelson and his Northern Ireland Office officials prepared to travel to Dublin to agree that the effort to get a breakthrough on decommissioning and keep the political institutions running had failed.
Northern Ireland-based journalists who were briefed by the NIO before travelling to Dublin for the meeting were of one view: the game was up, and the institutions were to be suspended that week.
Just before 2 a.m. that day, Gen de Chastelain reported to the Irish and British governments to the effect that he had no clear IRA commitment to decommissioning, let alone a start date or timetable.
Without such commitments at a minimum, it was calculated that David Trimble could not survive this morning's reconvened meeting of the Ulster Unionist Council in Belfast. To save him, the Belfast press corps predicted, the institutions would be suspended.
The Government had different ideas. Early that morning, after receiving the de Chastelain report, Irish officials spoke bluntly to Sinn Fein. They said the IRA had clearly not engaged seriously with the general, and had not given him what was required.
Hopes the British or unionists were bluffing should be discarded, they said. This was serious: without some real engagement and movement, the institutions would be suspended.
By that afternoon, the IRA had made it clear to the Government, through Sinn Fein, that it was willing to participate in efforts to resolve the crisis. Bertie Ahern telephoned Tony Blair to tell him he believed this was a worthwhile development, and more time was therefore justified. He urged the postponement of suspension, as did Brian Cowen, who finally met Mr Mandelson at 4 p.m.
To show its seriousness, the IRA issued a statement as that meeting was taking place. This is understood to have contained nothing the IRA had not already said to Gen de Chastelain, but Government figures said its significance was in the fact it was issued at all. They said it showed the IRA now realised action from it was required if the political institutions were to be saved.
The statement said the IRA was "totally committed to the peace process, that the IRA wants a permanent peace, that the declaration and maintenance of the cessation, which is now entering its fifth year, is evidence of that, that the IRA's guns are silent and that there is no threat to the peace process from the IRA".
No answer there to the two-part question: will they decommission, and if so, when?
However, the British agreed to give a breathing space until Thursday last week to see if any real movement could be extracted from the IRA. The following day, Mr Adams, Mr McGuinness and three other senior republicans came to Government Buildings to meet Mr Ahern and Mr Cowen. There was, according to reliable sources, tough talking, with Mr Ahern outlining bluntly that the IRA had not produced enough, and that if it did not move, the political institutions were gone.
That night the Government announced that the following day, Thursday, Mr Ahern and Mr Blair would meet in south-west England, where the British Prime Minister was on tour. The meeting was initially pencilled in for lunchtime in Exeter, Devon, but was moved to late afternoon in Plymouth before it finally took place at the seaside town of St Austell, Cornwall, at 9 p.m.
The delay was to allow intensive talks in Belfast between Irish officials and Sinn Fein to continue in an effort to get further evidence of IRA movement. Mr Ahern wanted to be able to tell Mr Blair there was some progress - enough to allow a further breathing space before suspension. As the day went on the prospect of this looked less likely, but ultimately, Mr Ahern called Mr Blair in late afternoon to say there was indeed some sign of movement.
That evening, Mr Mandelson announced a further breathing space, this time of a week. The legislation allowing him to suspend the new political institutions would not receive royal assent until the end of the week.
The twin aims of the Irish strategy had been to engage the IRA in a meaningful search for a resolution, and to convince the British government a resolution was possible, and suspension was not inevitable. By Thursday night both of these aims had been achieved. Then came the hard bit.
The three most senior officials involved in the process spent most of last weekend in Belfast in intensive discussions with Sinn Fein. The meetings took place in a number of venues, including hotels. Sinn Fein figures left the meetings occasionally to return later with news of the IRA's view of various proposals.
Some time before last Wednesday, a detailed proposal began to take shape. The first element involved a clear IRA statement to Gen de Chastelain that would allow him report that decommissioning would take place, and when it would start. A second element was an attempt to ensure that British troop numbers and military installations would be scaled down once decommissioning began.
Mr David Trimble responded to publication of the outline of these proposals, in The Irish Times on Wednesday, by rejecting the idea that decommissioning IRA weapons would be linked to the removal of British troops and bases. However, it became clear this element was central to the various proposals being discussed between Irish officials and Sinn Fein.
On Wednesday night, Mr Cowen met Mr Mandelson for 75 minutes in London. Mr Cowen outlined what had been put together in the days of discussions between the Irish officials and Sinn Fein. Mr Mandelson said that was still not enough to save Mr Trimble and the institutions.
Mr Cowen, the Taoiseach and the officials knew he was right. On Thursday morning Mr Ahern met Mr Trimble. The Taoiseach said there had been some incremental progress. Mr Trimble said that by this morning, either the institutions would be suspended, or his leadership of the UUP would be over.
That same morning the three key officials talked in Dublin to Mr Ahern and Mr Cowen before their final trip to Belfast. At 4 a.m. yesterday they wound up their meeting with the equally exhausted Sinn Feiners, had a couple of hours sleep and flew to Dublin.
Overnight Mr Ahern briefed President Clinton on the continuing impasse. Yesterday morning he spoke again to Mr Blair.
Mr Ahern and Mr Cowen spent most of yesterday at a Fianna Fail function in the Grand Hotel Malahide, Co Dublin, so it was there the officials went and the final act of the drama was played out. By telephone, the Government spoke to their British counterparts and outlined the final formula on offer.
At the end, Mr Mandelson pulled the plug just before the 6 p.m. television news, where he went live to announce his intention to suspend and to give interviews explaining why. He initially suggested he had not known about any new IRA proposal until Mr Adams issued a statement saying there was a "major breakthrough".
Under questioning, Mr Mandelson then said the Irish Government had in fact shared the information with the British government, but he had never known whether this information would be made available to the general or to the public.
As details of the proposal began to emerge last night, Mr Ahern, Mr Cowen and the Irish officials were still meeting over an hour after the suspension. The last-minute drama ensured this extraordinarily pressured period of negotiations is not over yet.