Ireland's key 15-to-64 age group will rise more sharply than in any other European country over the next ten to 15 years, according to a report published today by NCB Stockbrokers.
The study says although the populations in the of the EU25 countries will remain broadly static, the population of the EU15 will rise, largely as a result of inward migration from newer member states.
According to the report, Ireland's population will reach five million in 2015 and will exceed 5.3 million in 2020.
NCB predicts that the labour force growth will grow at an average of 2.2 per cent every year during the ten years to 2015. However, for the following five years, NCB expects the rate of labour force increase to slow sharply, to less than 1 per cent per annum.
With this level of employment growth, NCB expects the "underlying potential real rate of growth in Irish GDP in the five years to 2010 could be close to 5.75 per cent".
The report also anticipates house prices rising by 11 per cent this year before falling back to 6 per cent rises in 2007. It expects underlying demand for houses to be around 65,000 until 2015, before dropping off to 55,000 per year until 2020.
The size of the Irish car fleet is forecast to almost double to three million vehicles by 2020, up from the current level of 1.6 million. It is expected to increase by 100,000 vehicles a year between now and 2010.
In the greater Dublin area, the number of cars is expected to rise to 800,000 by 2010.
NCB estimates that the inflow of new immigrants will remain steady at 70,000 per annum for the next four years before easing to roughly 43,000 a year until 2015.
Over the same period the report estimates emigration from Ireland at roughly 0.4 per cent of the population, resulting in a net inward migration of 53,000 annually.
By 2020, immigrants could account for 19 per cent of the population, or about a million people.