THE ISRAELI Knesset’s influential foreign affairs and defence committee this week issued a report ahead of the expected endorsement by the United Nations of Palestinian statehood. It warned that the gap between Palestinian expectations and the likely lack of any real change on the ground could lead to a new outbreak of violence.
Palestinian officials have called for mass protest marches from September 20th, the eve of the UN vote expected to recognise their independence. Palestinian official Yasser Abed Rabbo said the peaceful protests would be called “Palestine 194” because the Palestinians hope to become the 194th member of the UN.
But the Israeli military is concerned that the protests will quickly develop into a new conflagration.
Israeli security officials predicted three possible scenarios: non-violent mass protests controlled by the Palestinian Authority; wider clashes accompanied by Hamas terrorist attacks in the West Bank and the release of militants from Palestinian prisons; and finally, a massive escalation which may involve attacks on Jewish settlements and a renewed wave of terrorist attacks in the West Bank and inside Israel, accompanied by massive rocket fire from Gaza deep into Israel.
The army has been training extensively for the possibility of violence. Jewish settlements in the West Bank will be issued with tear gas and stun grenades, extra troops will be deployed in the West Bank and the army has also drawn up contingency plans to draft reservists. The army is eager to avoid a repeat of events earlier this year when troops were poorly prepared and had to use live fire to prevent thousands of Palestinian protesters crossing into Israel along the country’s borders with Syria and Lebanon.
But while military preparations on the ground have gone into high gear, Israel has almost given up the diplomatic fight. Although the exact wording of the United Nations motion has still to be finalised, more than 120 states have already indicated they will vote in favour of a motion recognising a Palestinian state in the West Bank, including east Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip.
Originally Jerusalem hoped to persuade a “critical minority” of democratic states to oppose the UN resolution, taking away the moral victory from the Palestinians. However, only a handful of countries have pledged to vote against.
Israel, which argued that a Palestinian state can only come about as a result of bilateral negotiations, has warned that recognition of Palestinian statehood will lead to the derailment of final status peace talks for many years.
Israeli officials explained that if the international community recognised a Palestinian state in the entire West Bank and Gaza Strip, no Palestinian government would be willing to accept less than this, and an insurmountable disparity would result. “They’re putting Abu Mazen [president Mahmoud Abbas] up a high tree and then taking away his ladder,” a senior Israeli political source claimed this week. Israel’s ambassador to the US, Michael Oren, hinted that in response to the UN vote, Israel may annul previous agreements with the Palestinian Authority. He said agreements on security, infrastructure and exports, etc, could all become irrelevant if the Palestinians turned to the UN unilaterally.
In addition to the possibility of violence, Israel is also worried that pro-Palestinian groups could try to capitalise on the UN decision and promote boycotts against Israel. The Palestinian Authority could also turn to international organisations to attack Israel and impose sanctions because of the settlements.
Mr Abbas dismissed Israeli fears and stressed that the bid for UN recognition of statehood was not aimed at isolating Israel in the international arena. He argued that UN endorsement would pressurise Israel to negotiate a final peace deal and cease settlement activity. “Once a Palestinian state is recognised, that will lay the foundations for peace, coexistence and justice to replace oppression and aggression. Thus, we will bring to an end this conflict and this occupation, which is the longest in modern history.”