Solving the policing conundrum could be to the mutual benefit of Dr Paisley and Mr Adams, says Gerry Moriarty
With London exercising the shoulder, and Dublin providing the exhortation, heavyweight political prop-forward pressure was mounted over recent days to break the policing deadlock that is threatening the implementation of the St Andrews Agreement. "The game is still in play," was the word late last night from a senior talks source.
It was a countdown to Christmas, a race against the clock to create the conditions where either today, tomorrow or Saturday, Gerry Adams would feel in a position to call an immediate ardchomhairle that in turn would requisition a special Sinn Féin ardfheis on policing for early to mid-January.
It is chiefly Mr Adams' call, and it is a big call. If the ardchomhairle doesn't happen in the coming days, then the whole St Andrews Agreement and the prospects for the return of full devolution on March 26th is in jeopardy. It all could come crashing down like a badly set scrum.
If the ardchomhairle isn't called this week, then it could be into January before such a gathering of the general Sinn Féin leadership takes place. If it goes to January under Sinn Féin rules, it would take a further two weeks before an ardfheis on policing would happen. That would take us towards the end of January, when the Transitional Assembly is to be dissolved and the Assembly election campaign begins, leading to polling day on March 7th.
This, as the British and Irish governments and the parties acknowledge, is cutting it very tight to strike a deal on policing. In fact, it is leaving it so tight there could be little point running with an election at that stage. Both the Taoiseach and Northern Secretary have indicated that if the DUP/Sinn Féin policing standoff is not resolved in January - preferably early January - there will be no Assembly election. This would suit elements in the DUP - quite a number of those in the so-called Twelve Apostles or Dirty Dozen who dared question the Rev Ian Paisley's strategy and leadership last month. They would prefer if the election was put back later into 2007 or 2008 to test the bona fides of Sinn Féin and the IRA.
But the governments continue to insist that irrespective of what happens in these negotiations the St Andrews Agreement timeframe is set in stone, and that part of the timeframe is agreement on policing by January at the latest. If that doesn't happen, the rest of St Andrews doesn't happen.
But if an ardchomhairle this week calls a special ardfheis for early to mid-January, and if Mr Adams carries that ardfheis on policing - which, with some difficulty, he probably can do - then at the very least the St Andrews timeframe is back in business. The DUP could still walk away from it all but in this scenario the blame would fall on Dr Paisley, not the Sinn Féin president.
But it could still result in bad fallout for Sinn Féin. A devolution deal in March would surely provide a fine big bounce for Sinn Féin in the general election in May. In all those tight marginal constituencies it could be the making of those extra seats Sinn Féin craves, so that they can be a force both in the South and the North. Mr Adams knows all this.
The options appear between cracking the policing problem now to ensure the survival of the St Andrews Agreement and its big brother, the Belfast Agreement, or come early February or maybe March the governments throwing in the towel and applying Plan B.
Plan B, of course, is shutting Stormont, and providing a stronger role for Dublin in Northern Ireland affairs. That is anathema to Dr Paisley's agenda, although worryingly for the governments there may be some in his party who haven't quite come to terms with this reality. It is apparent that unpuzzling the policing conundrum - which would involve dangerous leaps of faith for Dr Paisley and Mr Adams - could be to the mutual advantage of Sinn Féin and the DUP and the Christmas box the governments require.