THE party leaders may have promised issues before personalities but in what was once the most predictable constituency in the State, the personalities are the issues. Limerick West, the Collins family and Fianna Fail have been politically linked for decades but this time, not only is the party divided but even the dynasty is showing signs of cracking up.
Michael Joseph Collins, brother of former Minister for Foreign Affairs Gerry Collins, has been chosen to head the family race but the last minute declaration of Jeannette McDonnell, his second cousin, for the Progressive Democrats has added further spice to the contest.
The stout fabric of the Fianna Fail organisation in the constituency began to unravel when it became clear that neither of the party's sitting TDs, Gerry Collins and Michael Noonan, would defend their seats. Both men had held ministerial office in their careers and had consolidated the vote in a rural constituency steeped in the traditions of Fianna Fail.
A vote had to be taken to replace the men who had made Limerick West a two Merc constituency and it was the voting procedure which caused the trouble. It was decided to hold two votes, one to replace Gerry Collins and one to replace Michael Noonan.
Many members of the organisation felt a single vote, with those finishing first and second being selected, would suffice. The feelings of Michael Brennan, a councillor from the picture postcard village of Adare, were reinforced when he finished second in the vote to replace Gerry Collins.
Mr Brennan, who works in the Adare Heritage Centre, out polled M.J. Collins in the last local elections and decided to run as an independent but, unlike many such in the past, he appears to be gaining a great deal of support.
In fact, there is a second Independent Fianna Fail candidate in the southeast of the constituency in the form of John Gallahue from Ballylanders, a former aide to Limerick East's Fianna Fail front runner Willie O'Dea.
Mr Brennan and Mr Gallahue have issued a joint policy document with a strong emphasis on agriculture and rural development. Mr Brennan says if elected he would support a government whose policies were closest to his own. It is believed however that he would take the Fianna Fail whip. Party officials feel that Mr Collins is certain to be elected but may not have a large enough surplus to bring in his running mate, Mr John Clifford.
The third seat could go any one of four ways. Mr Clifford might hold on for Fianna Fail. Fine Gael is optimistic on the basis of its polls that for the first time it could gain two seats with Senator Dan Neville joining Michael Finucane in the Dail.
Mr Brennan could take it as an Independent and Labour's Senator Mary Kelly could slip through the pack for a remarkable success. The entry of Ms McDonnell, who has long been associated with Fianna Fail, is regarded as being too late to see her gain a seat for the Progressive Democrats.
TV deflect or systems and water schemes have not concentrated the minds of the electorate to the extent they have in other constituencies and road improvements have to a large extent removed another local issue.
It is the personalities, therefore, and the arithmetic which dominate the scene. Fianna Fail points to its dominance of the constituency in the past as an indication of future success; the independents point to their strong local profile, Fine Gael draws attention to its balanced team of two candidates, while Labour points to Ms Kelly's strong performance in gaining almost 11 per cent of the vote last time.
In 1992, Fianna Fail and the PDs took more than 55 per cent of the vote, while Fine Gael and Labour secured 43 per cent. The performance of the two independents will change the picture and transfers will be vital in deciding the third seat. In the end it is expected to be a close call between the independent Michael Brennan, Fine Gael's Senator Neville and John Clifford of Fianna Fail.
