EU: Decision on EU accession for Romania and Bulgaria is due tomorrow, writes Jamie Smyth in Brussels
The EU has nothing to fear when Romania joins the union on January 1st, 2007, as the process of reform is now irreversible, says Monica Macovei, the woman credited with rooting out political corruption and modernising the country's legal system.
Ms Macovei, a human rights lawyer who was appointed justice minister in January 2005, says there are few problems with organised crime in Romania where there are no contract killings, unlike in neighbouring Bulgaria. Predictions that hundreds of thousands of Romanians will leave to work in other EU states after enlargement are also wide of the mark.
"These are the same fears that were raised when the requirement for Romanians to apply for visas to travel to other countries in the EU was removed a few years ago. There was no mass migration then and there won't be now," says Ms Macovei, who displays an openness and down-to-earth attitude rarely seen among senior politicians.
She says she has no doubts that tomorrow's recommendation on enlargement from the European Commission will enable Romania to join the union in January.
"I expect a positive report because all the peer reviews over the past two years have been positive. EU experts travelled all over the country, visiting courts and talking to judges about corruption . . . all their findings have been positive."
Brussels attributes the success of Romania's reform of its legal system and anti-corruption campaign to Ms Macovei.
In its recent monitoring report Romania did not receive any red flags in this sensitive area while Bulgaria received a poor report card.
Since her appointment, Ms Macovei has pioneered training for judges, established a register of interests for politicians and launched investigations and indictments against senior political figures, including five MPs and a former deputy prime minister.
"There has been huge change and an unprecedented number of investigations have been undertaken. Nothing like this has been seen for 60 to 100 years in Romania," says Ms Macovei, who comes from outside the political mainstream.
Before taking the post she was advising the Council of Europe in Sarajevo about judicial reform. She has never been elected to political office and is not a member of a political party. But when Romania's reforms ran out of steam in 2005, Romanian prime minister Calin Tariceanu turned to her in an attempt to rescue Romania's EU bid.
Ironically, just as Romania stands at the gates of the EU, one of Ms Macovei's key reforms, the establishment of a national integrity agency to scrutinise politicians' interests, is under threat. Already delayed, politicians are threatening to make amendments to the legislation establishing the agency which critics say would neutralise its effectiveness. The issue is even causing political instability in the ruling coalition, following a reprimand issued by Brussels this month.
Ms Macovei says she hopes that the agency is set up with enough teeth to do its job. However, she says she cannot predict what will happen in the coming weeks. One of her fears is that when Romania joins the EU the "political will" for reform may be lost. "I don't think the reforms will just stop because there is a lot of public pressure for reform in Romania. However, in the fight against corruption we also have to ensure that we keep the reforms that we have got already. That will be key."
So what happens to Romania in January? "I think entering the EU will bring great change to Romania," says Ms Macovei, who could also find her personal circumstances changing.
She is tipped by Brussels insiders to become Romania's first EU commissioner, although some EU officials fear that if she gets the job, it could slow the pace of reform in Romania.
"I've heard the rumours," she says when asked about her interest in the prestigious post.
"I'd like to work in Brussels. I think my experience over the past two years at bringing about reform and huge changes in Romania would be an asset.
"But I also have some mixed feelings as I would also like to continue the reforms at home."