Tony Blair will this week try to assist David Trimble, ahead of his Ulster Unionist Council showdown on Saturday, by focusing on an issue dear to Ulster Unionists, writes Northern Editor Gerry Moriarty
The British government will this week play to Middle Ulster's law-and-order concerns in an effort to convince the majority of the Ulster Unionist Council - who are firmly of that constituency - that David Trimble and the Belfast Agreement are the only way forward.
Notwithstanding Iraq, Saddam Hussein and George Bush, the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, last week demonstrated that the peace process remains surprisingly high on his list of priorities. In so doing, he also demonstrated that, whatever about mutterings elsewhere, he still has confidence in Mr Trimble.
Mr Blair held meetings with Mr Trimble, SDLP leader Mr Mark Durkan and the new PSNI chief constable, Mr Hugh Orde, last week. Following on from those meetings, Mr Blair's Northern Secretary, Dr John Reid, is unveiling a number of security measures designed to create public confidence that civil disorder, and paramilitary and ordinary crime will be tackled.
The British government will this week announce a new system to independently monitor paramilitary violence, although Dr Reid will have the ultimate say over whether the IRA and UVF ceasefires remain intact. This follows on the weekend announcement that CCTV will be erected at the Green-Orange interface in east Belfast.
Both initiatives were deplored by republicans and hailed by Mr Trimble and other unionists. What's bad for Sinn Féin and the IRA must be good for Ulster Unionism is a point that Mr Trimble and his Yes colleagues will emphasise at the UUC meeting on Saturday.
Maintaining the law-and-order theme, Mr Blair and Dr Reid are convinced that the offices of the Attorney General (AG) in London and the DPP in Belfast have a role to play in proving that the criminal justice system in the North will operate to protect the public - a matter again dear to Middle Ulster and Middle Unionism.
As one official put it: "The question that's asked here is: how come people caught rioting in Brixton or Bradford can be quickly slung into prison and kept there while in Northern Ireland it appears that the police and justice systems operate to facilitate the rioters and keep them out of prison?"
It is hoped that a review of the operations of the criminal justice system involving the AG, DPP, police, British government and other interested parties will be announced this week. Its objective is to ensure that people who riot or engage in other forms of civil disturbance will pay a substantial penalty, again in order to reassure the middle ground.
Focusing on the security card will be to Mr Trimble's advantage at the UUC meeting on Saturday, but the problem remains of Colombia and Castlereagh and the anti-agreement insistence that the IRA is central to most of the ills of Northern Ireland.
So Mr Trimble will need more than commitments on law and order in his armoury if he is to again withstand the challenge from the No wing of Ulster Unionism on Saturday. This is a very nervous time. There are Ulster Unionist MLAs who fear for their seats with Mr Trimble still at the helm.
Accordingly, Mr Trimble may meet any uncompromising motion from his opponents with his own tough proposals. This could involve a threatened withdrawal from the North-South institutions or even a warning that he will quit the Executive if republicans fail to demonstrate that they are committed to politics and the new policing arrangements.
The sceptics are still refusing to show their hand. They are hoping to present a motion that is hardline in seeking the removal of Sinn Féin from the Executive yet sufficiently balanced to win the support of those who teeter between the Yes and No camps.
And that is quite a conundrum for them, because the doubters who must switch sides to unseat Mr Trimble, while antagonistic to Sinn Féin, generally want to maintain devolution. And, as some of Mr Trimble's people point out that "you can have the Assembly and the Executive with Sinn Féin, but you can't have it without Sinn Féin".
One of Mr Trimble's chief loyalists added: "The choice is between what we have or direct rule. But it will not be direct rule on the terms that we knew it. Direct rule brought about by unionism in these circumstances, when the chairman of the jury is clearing his throat on Colombia and Castlereagh, illustrates that this is not the time for unionist in-fighting."