Killing strikes Pakistan at time of highest volatility

Benazir Bhutto's death may tip a hugely unstable nation over the brink, writes Rahul Bedi in New Delhi

Benazir Bhutto's death may tip a hugely unstable nation over the brink, writes Rahul Bediin New Delhi

Benazir Bhutto's assassination could not have come at a worse time for turbulent Pakistan and threatens to tip a highly volatile security situation over the brink in a largely lawless country armed with nuclear weapons.

Other than the prevailing political chaos ahead of next month's proposed general elections - exacerbated by Bhutto's killing - Pakistan is under siege by Islamists and suicide bombers who have the army in retreat.

The country is awash with drugs and easily available weapons which are reportedly under the "management" of renegade but powerful elements within the army and the omnipotent Inter Services Intelligence Directorate (ISID).

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Together, these have ruled Pakistan - directly or indirectly - for most if its 60 years since independence.

Alongside all this, a secessionist movement is raging in the western Balochistan province, while jihadists along with Taliban and al-Qaeda cadres are on the ascendant in Pakistan's federally administered tribal region (Fata) bordering Afghanistan and in the Swat region adjoining the capital Islamabad.

Nearly 1,000 Pakistani soldiers have died fighting Islamic insurgents over the past year. The army, under pressure from the US and other western powers, appears increasingly unwilling to engage the well-armed, battle- hardened and cunning insurgents waging civil war against the state.

The series of strikes on Pakistan's military battling al-Qaeda fighters and tribesmen aligned to the Taliban, and the recurring operational setbacks it has suffered, point to the force's declining morale and will to fight.

An increasing number of retired Pakistani military officers and analysts also question the army's motivation to fight what many locals believe to be "someone else's war".

Insiders attribute the military's irresolution in countering their Muslim brethren to its increasing Islamisation resulting, in turn, in disenchantment with fighting for a ladeen (or faithless army) allied too closely with the US that remains Islamabad's close ally in the global war against terrorism.

In addition, the warlike Pashtuns from the restive North West Frontier Province , ethnically aligned to the Fata insurgents, are agitating for separatism.

Widespread violence has erupted in Bhutto's southern home province of Sindh of which Karachi is the capital, where she enjoyed widespread support.

On her return home in October, after eight years of self-imposed exile, Bhutto's cavalcade was similarly attacked by a suicide bomber, an incident in which 139 people died. That time, she barely escaped.

Trouble in Sindh, which has seen periodic violence over the past two decades, would leave Pakistan with only Punjab.

This is its largest and most prosperous province in a region where geographical boundaries have often been redrawn through conquests and political agitation - almost always with disastrous consequences.