AS REBELS advance on Lubumbashi, Zaire's second city, inhabitants of the faraway capital are coming to realise they too could be in the firing line before long. The Alliance of Forces for the Liberation of Congo Zaire (ADFL) has vowed to take Kinshasa by June and end nearly 32 years of repressive rule by President Mobutu Sese Seko.
At the outset of the ADFL insurgency five months ago, such a claim would have seemed outrageous. Since the recent fall of the strategic city of Kisangani, however, nothing can be ruled out.
So weakened has the Kinshasa regime become that only the manner of its collapse now appears uncertain. The way events are unfolding, the whole teetering edifice of government could collapse long before the rebel leader, Mr Laurent Kabila, and his men march on the capital.
Having returned home from France where he was receiving treatment for cancer, Marshal Mobutu is keeping a low profile. However, at his first public appearance yesterday he declared that his return was motivated by a desire to save his country, rather than to look after his personal interests. But, with his own physical decline mirroring that of the country, the 66 year old dictator seems powerless to halt the tide of change sweeping across Zaire.
Earlier this year, he announced a Zairean army counter offensive which would halt the rebel advance; nothing happened. His latest promises to address the crisis shave mostly fallen on deaf ears. "Mobutu is a showman and an egomaniac," says a western diplomat in the region. "He doesn't really care what happens to Zaire. None of those in power do. All they're interested in is stashing away as much money as possible and buying smart apartments in Brussels."
Mobutu has called for a ceasefire as a precondition to negotiations with the rebels. But they have said they will only stop fighting after he agrees to direct talks.
The main issue on the rebel agenda - one on which they say they are not prepared to compromise - is the president's resignation. The sense of crisis in Kinshasa has deepened dramatically since a parliamentary vote last week to dismiss the Prime Minister, Mr Kengo wad Dondo. Making a mockery of his refusal to stand down is the fact that more deputies voted to oust bird than to elect him in 1994.
With the legitimate opposition in such disarray, it is not clear who might replace Mr Kengo were he to bow out. Mr Etienne Tshisekedi, a longtime Mobutu opponent, wants to take over and begin talks with the rebels. Having been elected prime minister by parliament five years ago, then rejected by President Mobutu Mr Tshisekedi still lays claim to the prime ministerial office. If he wins a showdown with Mr Kengo he says he will meet the rebels form an interim administration and prepare the country for its first multi party elections.
Meanwhile, there are growing rumours in Kinshasa of an imminent military coup. Despite the supposed loyalty of the presidential army division to Mobutu, some analysts believe that repeated humiliation at rebel hands might have pushed a group of top generals to the brink of mutiny. The spectre of chaos has prompted the United States and France to prepare for the evacuation of their nationals from the country. Already, large numbers of foreigners and wealthy Kinshasans have fled the capital. Diplomats say there is a sense of unreality in Kinshasa, an unwillingness by the regime to face the gravity of the situation. "They're still hoping someone from outside will save their bacon," says one.
While international efforts to find a solution to the crisis continue, there is little consensus about what to do. Though keen to prevent the disintegration of Zaire, western powers have, with the exception of France, little interest in direct intervention. Beyond renewing calls for a ceasefire and for Zaire's neighbours to stay out of the conflict, the international community is unlikely to further embroil itself in the plight of Africa's third largest nation.
The rebels, who control nearly a quarter of Zaire, show no sign of halting their advance. Nor is there any likelihood they will meet significant resistance from the demoralised Zairean forces. The inhabitants of areas "liberated" by the rebels have shown vociferous support for their cause.
"This is not so much about Kabila," says one western diplomat, "as about change people hope that any change will be one for the better."
Reuter adds from Brussels: A spokesman for Mr Kabila called yesterday on other political groups in Zaire to organise an uprising against the Mobutu regime.