Kohl's party cuts back SPD lead in new opinion poll

The German chancellor, Dr Helmut Kohl, returned to Bonn yesterday from his summer holiday in Austria as the second opinion poll…

The German chancellor, Dr Helmut Kohl, returned to Bonn yesterday from his summer holiday in Austria as the second opinion poll within a week showed his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) closing the gap on the opposition Social Democrats (SPD).

The poll, carried out for the television network NTV, showed support for the SPD unchanged at 41 per cent while the CDU's share rose to 38 per cent, leaving the smallest gap between the two parties since February.

With just seven weeks to go before the federal election on September 27th, most pundits are still predicting that Social Democrats popular candidate, Mr Gerhard Schroder, will deprive Dr Kohl of a record fifth term in office.

But Mr Schroder's advisers are more cautious and this week warned supporters against writing off the chancellor too soon.

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Yesterday's poll predicts that both the environmentalist Greens and Dr Kohl's allies in the Liberal Free Democrats (FDP) will scrape back into the Bundestag next month, along with the ex-communist Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS).

Mr Schroder's preferred coalition partners are the Greens but he has not ruled out forming a grand coalition with the CDU, as long as the SPD is the biggest party. Dr Kohl has promised to step down rather than govern with the SPD, but many of his lieutenants are willing to consider any arrangement that would keep them in power.

The chancellor has identified the CDU parliamentary leader, Mr Wolfgang Schauble, as his heir apparent.

Mr Schauble, who uses a wheelchair following an assassination attempt, yesterday insisted that he was still interested in becoming chancellor when Dr Kohl retires. Earlier this week, Mr Schauble's wife said that she was doubtful the German public would accept a chancellor in a wheelchair.

Denis Staunton

Denis Staunton

Denis Staunton is China Correspondent of The Irish Times