CONSTITUENCY NOTEBOOK/Cork East: Fine Gael's David Stanton has performed well in the Dáil but has not consolidated his constituency base, reports Dick Hogan
In the 1989 general election, when the future of Mallow General Hospital was at stake, Mr Joe Sherlock was handed a campaign issue guaranteed to win votes in the northern part of the Cork East constituency. He took 7,414 first-preference votes and won the seat for the Workers Party.
This time, however, the predominant issues are to be found on the Cobh/Midletown/Youghal side, where his Labour Party running mate, Mr John Mulvihill, is hoping to win back the seat which Fine Gael took from him at the last election.
The consensus now is that the two Fianna Fáil seats, held by sacked junior minister Mr Ned O'Keeffe, and Mr Michael Ahern, are safe, and that Mr O'Keeffe's political travails, far from working against him, will ensure that his loyal following will help him to top the poll. The question is what will become of the other two seats,held by Mr Paul Bradford, and Mr David Stanton of Fine Gael?
Mr Bradford is easily the more comfortable of the two candidates, and despite Mr Stanton's solid performances in the Dáil, the fact is that on the ground Mr Bradford is perceived as a winner, while the view is that Stanton is far from safe.
His was a surprise win in1997, and much of his vote was by way of protest against Labour, it is felt. That is why all eyes, and particularly those of Mr Sherlock and Mr Mulvihill, are on his seat.
Mr Mulvihill feels the death throes of Irish Steel which were well under way at the last election, may have cost him his seat. Now it is far better understood locally that he worked hard to keep the company afloat and he has been a champion since its closure of the rights of the workers there.
The closure of Youghal Carpets and Universal Foods all occurred in his side of the constituency, bringing job losses close to the 1,000 mark, and through it all, he was one of the most vocal public representatives in fighting to keep these plants open.
Other local issues include the question of ringing Cork Harbour with ESB pylons and the siting of a hazardous waste incinerator at Ringaskiddy.
Mr Mulvihill expects to win up to 65 per cent of the Cobh vote, and this, coupled with his support from Midelton and Youghal as well as the transfer pact with Sherlock, will be enough for him to take back the seat, he believes. So do Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael pundits, who calculate that Mr Stanton has failed to consolidate his base.
It would appear then, that the battle for the fourth seat is between Mr Sherlock on one side of the constituency and Mr Mulvihill on the other. Both have held seats before but given that the main issues are now on the eastern part of the constituency, Mr Mulvihill could be expected to shade it.
Prediction: FF 2, FG 1, Lab 1.