Labour could spring a surprise Verdict

Constituency profile Kerry North: The Labour challenge is dominating the battle for the three seats in Kerry North.

Constituency profile Kerry North:The Labour challenge is dominating the battle for the three seats in Kerry North.

The constituency was once a Labour stronghold despite some near misses, not least Dick Spring's survival by just four votes 20 years ago.

As an outgoing tánaiste and Labour leader, his seat seemed secure, but he only just made it after a marathon count.

He seemed secure, too, last time, having delivered handsomely to the constituency in his years at the centre of power, but the vagaries of PR saw Sinn Féin's Martin Ferris take the seat despite Spring's impressive first-preference vote. It ended an unbroken run which began in 1943 when Spring's father Dan first won the seat.

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There was no member of the Spring family interested in contesting the election this time, and the mantle fell to councillor Terry O'Brien, who has launched an intensive campaign aided by Spring and his sister, Maeve Spring, former councillor and constituency secretary.

The constituency's three outgoing TDs, Fianna Fáil's Tom McEllistrim, Fine Gael's Jimmy Deenihan and Ferris, while individually strong, are all potentially vulnerable.

Spring has indicated that he is wearing out at least three pairs of shoes, adding that the extended family is totally committed to winning back the seat. Coupled with O'Brien's team, it is a formidable machine.

Last time, Spring polled 8,773 first preferences, which put him ahead of McEllistrim and Deenihan who went on to win seats, so O'Brien is launching his challenge from a strong base.

O'Brien, a community development officer with the Irish Wheelchair Association, has himself been confined to a wheelchair since 1989, when he broke his neck in an accident in New York after diving into the shallow water of a swimming pool.

He was encouraged by Spring to enter local politics in the 1980s, and he went on to serve as mayor of Tralee on two occasions.

In the 2004 local elections, he headed the poll in the Tralee town council and county council elections, outpolling McEllistrim's sister Anne and Ferris's daughter Toireasa.

A problem O'Brien faces is that that he may not acquire sufficient votes outside of his Tralee base to secure a seat. However, there is also the possibility that his campaign could have sufficient momentum to more than see him home.

Ferris topped the poll the last time with 9,496 first preferences, and this election will determine how well he has consolidated his base, particularly in Tralee.

There was never any prospect of unity in the Fianna Fáil campaign, which represents the battle between the second generations of the McEllistrims and Foleys for the Fianna Fáil seat.

In the past, former TD Denis Foley and McEllistrim's late father Tom were in competition for the seat when it became clear that the glory days of two seats for Fianna Fáil in Kerry North were a thing of the past.

McEllistrim, who polled 7,884 first preferences last time, has Foley's daughter, councillor Norma Foley, as his running mate this time. Both share the same Tralee base, a geographical aberration which owes more to local party infighting than the desire of Fianna Fáil headquarters to see a balanced ticket.

Deenihan, who polled 8,652 first preferences last time, comes from Finuge near Listowel, giving him the advantage of being the only candidate based in the northern end of the constituency. He has more than staked his claim for ministerial preferment if Fine Gael gets into power.

As the tide went out for his party in 2002, he did well, his vote dropping only 2.2 per cent. There is no doubt that O'Brien has a battle on his hands, but nobody will be surprised if he wins.

All three TDs are taking his challenge very seriously.

Michael O'Regan

Michael O'Regan

Michael O’Regan is a former parliamentary correspondent of The Irish Times