Labour must now put a new spring in its step

As plaudits and praise are heaped on the Labour leader, Mr Dick Spring, there is a corresponding hardening in the view that he…

As plaudits and praise are heaped on the Labour leader, Mr Dick Spring, there is a corresponding hardening in the view that he will tell the Parliamentary Labour Party tomorrow of his intention to step down forthwith.

While the party awaits tomorrow's statement from its leader, a number of PLP members privately voiced the opinion yesterday that there is "no going back" for Mr Spring now. In spite of public affirmations since the weekend that he should not, and need not, vacate the post he has held for 15 years, they admit that the momentum is now such that the Kerry TD is unlikely to take any course of action other than make way for a successor.

The contest to fill the vacancy begins at once, but the likely outcome of this leadership battle is notoriously difficult to predict since the main voting bloc - the General Council of the Labour Party - is an unknown entity.

It numbers less than 50 and includes some of Labour's 20-strong Parliamentary Labour Party. The joint meeting of the PLP and General Council - the total electorate which will decide a new leader - should come to 64. Although they have a period of 30 days' grace before deciding on Mr Spring's successor, they are in fact expected to vote within two weeks of the resignation.

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According to well-placed sour ces, the contest is likely to be a two-horse race between former ministers Ruairi Quinn and Brendan Howlin. Speculation that Michael D. Higgins might be a contender waned yesterday. Mr Quinn can be confident of the support of up to seven of the eight Dublin-based TDs. Brendan Howlin, meanwhile, could reasonably expect the backing of some of the Leinster TDs, such as Brian O'Shea, of Waterford, and Willie Penrose, of Westmeath.

While Mr Quinn would be assured of the Dublin bloc, he by no means holds sway outside that area, and sources last night said that the battle for the hearts and minds of the General Council would be intense and capricious.

The council is elected in the main at the annual conference and some members are co-opted from constituencies without Dail representation. The Labour Women's Group and Labour Youth are also represented. A number of those on the council are also SIPTU members. They may not be feeling kindly towards Mr Quinn after his tussle last year with Mr Spring - who was then Tanaiste - over Partnership 2000. In anger, Mr Quinn threatened to resign as finance minister.

With time running out before the deadline for agreement on Partnership 2000, Mr Spring, without the consent of Mr Quinn, sealed a deal with the unions on public service pay which effectively breached Department of Finance targets.

Whatever differences may divide Mr Quinn and Mr Howlin, they are ad idem on the other issue which has led to conflict in Labour - coalition with Fianna Fail. With the question of coalition per se now effectively behind them, the dispute only hinges on whether or not to enter coalition with the party from which they split acrimoniously two years ago.

Dick Spring's two potential successors are coalitionists and neither has any ideological hang-up about Fianna Fail, a fact which will inevitably lead to tensions within the party.

Under party regulations, the leadership ballot must be conducted in secret within 30 days of Mr Spring's resignation, but the party will have to consider the negative implications of allowing the contest to run for the duration of this period. There are fears in Labour that a prolonged campaign would tempt the Government to move the two by-election writs, which would mean that the party would have to confront the electorates of Limerick East and Dublin North in the middle of an internal leadership wrangle.

Victory, for whichever contestant, will be a cup tinged with bitterness. In the wake of the disastrous presidential election showing of Ms Adi Roche, morale in Labour is dissipated and will require intense resuscitation under a new leader if the party is to re-establish itself as a spirited force in Irish politics.

With the Irish political stage well and truly crowded with "centre" parties, TDs are openly demanding more accountability within the party and to the public as well as a refocusing of direction and a redefinition of core values.

One long-time party member yesterday said that Labour needed to be "dragged to the Left, where it traditionally belongs".

However, a senior TD said that the leadership contest would have to be conducted delicately.