Labour's lead cut to only three points

An opinion poll carried out last week and published in yesterday's Mail On Sunday shows that the British Conservative Party has…

An opinion poll carried out last week and published in yesterday's Mail On Sunday shows that the British Conservative Party has narrowed the gap with Labour to three points - its best showing since 1993.

According to the poll, the government has dropped five points to 41 points, while the Tories have climbed five points to 38. The Liberal Democrats are up two on 16 points.

As the Conservatives claimed that to be staging a recovery in the run-up to the next election, party chairman Mr Michael Ancram said: "The New Labour bubble has burst. Fewer and fewer people believe Tony Blair's promises any more, and more and more people are turning to the common sense solutions which William Hague is offering."

However, a polling expert Mr Bob Worcester, head of MORI, predicted that Labour would recover from the "blip". Voters still judged Mr Blair to be the politician who best understood world problems and the interests of individual people, he said. "Despite the sharp narrowing of Labour's lead I still think that the Tory recovery is very fragile.

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"When it comes to a general election, where it's not just an opinion poll that can carry a protest, or a European election, or a local council election, or a by-election . . . Blair has such a strong lead over Mr Hague he will end up with a substantial majority."

Meanwhile it also emerged yesterday that a Downing Street aide had given a written advance warning that Mr Blair's speech to the Women's Institute last week, at which he was heckled and slow-handclapped, was beset with problems and doomed to fail. In a serious embarrassment for No 10, a leaked memo warned that the address could be seen as "sad" and "condescending".

As recriminations continued over who was to blame for the ill-fated address, the memo showed at least one official inside No 10 had been alive to its dangers.

Headed "To: Alastair, From: Philip", it was reputedly sent to the Prime Minister's press secretary, Mr Alastair Campbell, by a polling expert Mr Philip Gould.