CONSTITUENCY NOTEBOOK/Dun Laoghaire: Labour is on course to gain a seat in Dún Laoghaire. Ms Niamh Bhreathnach is expected to join Mr Eamon Gilmore in the Dáil, marking a dramatic resurgence in Labour's fortunes in the five-seat constituency.
The DL-Labour merger has worked very successfully in Dún Laoghaire, thanks in part to the fact that Mr Gilmore, a highly impressive Dáil performer, already had a strong electoral base. So, from having no seat after the last election, Labour is expected to have two this time.
The Labour gain is likely to be at the expense of Fine Gael whose two outgoing TDs, Mr Sean Barrett and Ms Monica Barnes, are retiring.
Fine Gael is fielding three candidates, Senator Liam Cosgrave, Senator Helen Keogh and Mr John Bailey, chairman of the Dublin county GAA board.
Mr Cosgrave represented the constituency in the Dáil, from 1981 to 1987, having succeeded his father, Mr Liam Cosgrave, a former Taoiseach.
Ms Keogh was the PD deputy for the constituency from 1992 to 1997, when she lost her seat. She was one of the PD nominees to the Seanad when the party went into power with Fianna Fáil, but later defected to Fine Gael. Mr Bailey should poll well, given his sporting involvement. But with one seat likely for Fine Gael, Mr Cosgrave must be the front-runner, given that the family name still carries considerable clout with the traditional party vote.
In the run-up to the dissolution of the Dáil, there was considerable speculation that Mr Barrett, a consistently impressive vote-getter and Dáil performer, might yield to party pressure and reconsider his decision to retire. Mr Cosgrave, meanwhile, was privately indicating that if Mr Barrett was included on the ticket he would stand down. Eventually, Mr Barrett made it clear that his retirement plans were irreversible. With Mr David Andrews, standing down, his son, Mr Barry Andrews, is expected to take his place. His vote is likely to transfer to his son.
Ms Mary Hanafin, the Minister of State with responsibility for children, should hold her seat. The Green Party's candidate, Mr Ciaran Cuffe, is seen as a political dark horse, whose chance of taking a seat should not be lightly underestimated. Last time,Mr Vincent MacDowell, who is running as an Independent in this election, accumulated 3,454 votes before his elimination after the fourth count.
There will be keen interest, too, in the performance of the PD candidate, Ms Fiona O'Malley, daughter of the party's founder and retiring Limerick East TD, Mr Des O'Malley. Other candidates include Mr Richard Boyd, of the Socialist Workers' Party, Ms Heather Williams, Independent, and Ms Barbara Hyland, Independent.
Prediction: FF 2, Lab 2, FG 1. FG loss to Lab.
