BRITAIN: Tony Blair and his Labour government have suffered a double blow with dramatic new immigration figures coinciding with a poll showing the Conservatives with potential election-winning 40 per cent support for the first time since 1992. Frank Millar, London Editor, reports.
Yesterday's Guardian poll does not of itself presage a likely Tory victory at the next election. ICM's managing director Nick Sparrow has told The Irish Times however that Labour's 19-year low suggests the electoral cycle which delivered three big-majority Labour governments is finally turning.
That will be enough to have the alarm bells ringing inside 11 Downing Street as the chancellor, Gordon Brown, contemplates his prospects not just for the leadership succession but also for winning a subsequent electoral mandate in his own right.
The absence of any security "bounce" for the government in the wake of its handling of the alleged plot to bomb transatlantic flights will put pressure on Mr Blair to indicate something of the timetable for his planned departure from Number 10 during, if not before, next month's Labour Party conference.
Home secretary John Reid, meanwhile - having won some plaudits for his handling of the security crisis sparked by the alleged airline plot - is again engulfed in more traditional departmental controversy after the disclosure that some 600,000 people have come to work in Britain from eight nations that joined the European Union in 2004.
Labour MPs John Denham and Frank Field echoed Conservative calls on the government to restrict the rights of citizens of Romania and Bulgaria to work in Britain after they join the EU next year, amid conflicting projections that between 56,000 and 300,000 might arrive in Britain over a 20-month period unless the labour market is restricted.
Ministers were accused of grossly under-estimating the impact of the last EU enlargement after Home Office figures revealed that 427,000 Eastern Europeans - more than half (264,560) from Poland, followed by Lithuanians (50,535) and Slovakians (44,300) - had applied to work in Britain.
The government had predicted there would be just 15,000 a year moving to Britain for work from the new EU member countries. Home Office minister Tony McNulty accepted the real figure would be closer to 600,000 if self-employed workers, such as builders, were included.
The Liberal Democrats and the CBI joined ministers in acknowledging that Britain's economy had benefited from the hard work of migrants. However, Conservative spokesman Damian Green insisted: "It is vital we learn the lessons of the unprecedented numbers who came into this country after the last expansion of the EU." Mr Green said the government should impose restrictions similar to those applied by most EU countries to the last round of accession countries.
Greater long-term controversy might be generated by the disclosure that one million migrants have been given settlement rights in Britain since Labour came to power in 1997.
However, some commentators at Westminster urge a look beyond instant headlines and support ministerial contentions that the driving force for change on key issues of public concern - a possible cap on Bulgarians and Romanians coming in, on law and order and anti-social behaviour, and the ongoing terrorist threat - is still coming from within the Labour government rather than from the Conservative opposition.
One alarming message for Mr Blair from yesterday's ICM poll was that only 1 per cent of voters believe his government's foreign policy has made Britain safer, while 72 per cent - including 65 per cent of Labour voters - think government policy has made Britain more of a terrorist target.
The mixed message from voters over foreign policy was also reflected in last week's YouGov poll showing just 12 per cent in favour of a more conciliatory foreign policy, 24 per cent wanting no change and 53 per cent favouring a more aggressive policy - but in closer alliance with Europe than America.
There was some reassurance for Mr Blair in that most people have little doubt about the reality of the terrorist threat facing Britain. While 21 per cent of voters thought the government had exaggerated the threat and 20 per cent thought the government was telling the truth, 51 per cent suspected the government might be telling less than it knows.