David Cameron wanted to settle Lib Dem nerves. He has done so, but at a price, writes MARK HENNESSY
ON THE morning after the night before, staff from the political parties in Oldham began the task of wading through ward returns in a bid to figure out exactly what happened in the first by-election since last May’s general election.
The exercise matters. Oldham East and Saddleworth makes no difference to the House of Commons’ arithmetic, but it offers clues to the shifting sands of public opinion now that the effects of spending cuts are beginning to be felt.
If any of the locals had been in doubt about the future, it was cleared away with the announcement as they went to vote by Greater Manchester Council – which covers Oldham – that it intends to sack one in five of its staff over the next year to stay within falling budgets.
In summary, a considerable number of those who opted for the Liberal Democrats last May shifted to Labour, but they were replaced – not entirely, but significantly so – by those who had backed the Conservatives.
In truth, all three main party leaders, Cameron, Nick Clegg of the Liberal Democrats and Labour’s Ed Miliband can claim some measure of victory, even if the Conservative leader is the only one who cannot trumpet his success out loud.
Despite their denials now, the Conservatives made little effort in Oldham, even though they had, ironically, the best candidate in local Muslim, Kashif Ali, who is far more impressive than the eventual winner, Labour’s Debbie Abrahams.
Despite the fall in the Liberal Democrats’ support, Clegg has been given enough to argue that he has suffered nothing more than the squalls that affect all parties in government, not the meltdown that had been predicted by some.
While turnout was down from 62 per cent to 48 per cent, the party’s share of the vote actually increased by 0.3 per cent to 32 per cent, compared to a flurry of opinion polls nationally that showed the party’s support plummeting to just 8 per cent.
The Conservatives’ vote share, meanwhile, did plummet, from 26 per cent to 13 per cent, raising increased fears among some in his party about Cameron’s future intentions. He likes having the Liberal Democrats around, because it allows him to ignore his own right wing.
For now, his awkward squad can do little to harm him, but it will not always be so. With each act of betrayal, as they see it, of traditional Conservative values by Cameron the greater will be the revenge when it does come.
A meltdown for the Liberal Democrats would have created major question marks over the survival of the coalition, since the junior partners are still nervous and fretful about their loss of public favour in the wake of the tuition crisis.
Oldham East, said party president Tim Farron, was the Liberal Democrats’ “Dunkirk moment”, so much less bad than it might have been that it almost counts as a success. However, Oldham East is exactly the sort of seat that it would have expected to win in past by-elections in the days when it was innocent of the sins of power.
Ed Miliband, meanwhile, can argue that Abrahams’ victory marks the first real step in the long march back to power – a timely boost given that he has so far not established himself in the eyes of the public in the way that many in Labour hoped. Still, it is early days.
However, Miliband will note the vote-switching patterns revealed in Oldham by local Conservative supporters, a seat where the party organisations of both would do for each in a dark alley if chance permitted.
In the past, such vote-shifting was a more visible factor between Labour and Liberal Democrat voters in by-elections in places where they wanted to keep the Tory out, though it has happened, too, between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives. The scale of what appears to have happened in Oldham is interesting, nevertheless.
However, it is unlikely to mark a trend since there are not too many constituencies in England where the residual Tory vote will be enough to compensate the Liberal Democrats for the losses they will suffer in the next election of people “returning to Labour”, particularly if the election takes place in 2015 after five years of Conservative/Liberal Democrats alliance.
If anything, it may prove useful to those involved in the Alternative Vote referendum, which is expected to take place in May, but still not confirmed, to show how tactical voting could make far more constituencies in Britain genuine fights, or to show the dangers of such a change to the current incumbents. Statistics can be spun in many ways.