Late addition to ticket may turn out to be poll topper

"THE big five", read the headline in Cork's Evening Echo

"THE big five", read the headline in Cork's Evening Echo. It was referring to the five candidates in Cork South Central who, according to a public opinion poll, are destined to be returned to the Dail after the general election.

The poll, commissioned by the Labour Party and carried out by MRBI, suggested that Mr Hugh Coveney of Fine Gael would top the poll even though he had to be added to the ticket following his failure to be selected at a party convention. That mix up, said Mr Peter Barry, the former Minister for Foreign Affairs, afterwards, would only do him good.

It was Mr Barry's daughter, Ms Deirdre Clune, who won the nomination ahead of Mr Coveney.

The poll gave a seat to Fianna Fail's Mr Micheal Martin, one to his colleague, Mr Batt O'Keeffe, one to Labour's Mr Toddy O'Sullivan, and one to Ms Clune.

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The results of the poll came as no surprise to most people. It is a fair bet that Mr Coveney, despite that rather embarrassing selection convention which left him considering his future in politics, will poll very strongly and may well be the biggest votecatcher in the sprawling constituency.

It is also reasonable to assume that Mr Martin, Mr O'Keeffe and Mr O'Sullivan will keep their seats. But Mr Sylvester Cotter of Fine Gael, who is also in the field, was not quite so impressed.

Immediately he rushed out a statement rejecting the poll, or at least the manner in which the Labour Party had construed it. A spokesman for MRBI also indicated that he was not happy with the way in which the figures had been presented.

Mr Cotter's statement was to the effect that his own private poll was telling a different story, and that he would take a second seat for Fine Gael, with Ms Clune battling it out for the last seat.

Even if there is a backlash against Labour, as many predict, Mr O'Sullivan's personal following in the constituency should see him through. Much harder to call is the destination of the final seat.

Mr John Dennehy of Fianna Fail is a doughty politician and is in there fighting. He has mounted a high powered campaign and will take a substantial vote. Then there's the Canty factor.

Mr Derry Canty of the Progressive Democrats failed to win his party's nomination. He lost out to Mr Tom Coughlan, formerly of Fianna Fail.

In his Ballincollig base that decision has not gone down too well and he is going to muddy the waters for the PDs before this election is over. He will stand as an Independent PD candidate in the constituency where Pat Cox secured a seat for the party in 1992.

Mr Dan Boyle of the Green Party has been increasing his vote steadily. This election, he thinks, could mark the breakthrough.

These are the serious players in the constituency, but one matter should not be overlooked.

Mr Coveney was brought into politics at the behest of Peter Barry. He will receive huge support but he will also seek transfers for his former mentor's daughter.

As of now, it seems that the Cotter/Clune segment of Fine Gael will be head to head for the final seat in a most intriguing competition, with the four sitting TDs being returned.

The Cotter/Clune battle is at present too close to call.

Mr Tim Murphy (29) is standing as a candidate to legalise cannabis. He may be looking for the floating vote. Whether he gets it or not is another thing.